Neither talent nor situation is valuable without the other. In the modern NBA, talent is more available than ever, and the battle for opportunity is fought constantly. Here’s how you can identify breakout seasons before they happen, and who to flip before its too late.
A Simple Formula: Talent x Situation
• High Talent + Great Situation = Elite Asset. (e.g., a superstar with a high usage rate on a stable team)
• High Talent + Poor Situation = Risk/Upside Play. (e.g., a young, talented player stuck behind an aging veteran, waiting for a trade or injury to unlock potential)
• Low Talent + Great Situation = Waiver Wire Gold. (e.g., a role player thrust into the starting lineup due to injuries, providing temporary but valuable production)
• Low Talent + Poor Situation = Irrelevant.
Jalen Johnson is a great example of a highly talented player who found himself in a great situation. Despite his otherworldly abilities, he truly reached his max potential when Trae Young was sidelined with an injury earlier this year. Since then, Jalen is averaging 24 points, 11 rebounds, and nearly 9 assists. The Hawks situation has turned Johnson into a high usage monster, and he has taken advantage of it. Injuries are impossible to predict, but keep your eyes on trade rumors, and who might benefit from a key deal.
However, a talented player in a tougher situation is his teammate, rookie Asa Newell. The reason the Hawks present a poor situation for the 20 year old is due to their overwhelming depth in the front court. Asa has shown flashes of scoring prowess, dropping double digits on multiple occasions. If the situation improves for Asa, prepare for liftoff.
In order to truly build a dynasty, consider the team dynamics of any player you consider drafting or acquiring. Will they ball out on a bad team? Will a trade turn them into a third or fourth option, nuking their usage? Questions like these will help shape your team, and lead you to consistent, long-term success.