ED
EDBiggest swing · BKN at MIA
E. Dëmin 24' 3PT (17 PTS) (M. Porter Jr. 1 AST).
Q3, 7:12.
Nets 84, Heat 83 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 607 readings · Final · October 14, 2026
+14to BKN
FINAL · BKN AT MIA
Heat beat the Nets by 16 — 144–128.
Our win probability · Heat came back from a 48% chance at Q3 6:48 · the favourite changed 6 times
Final · October 14, 2026
Top scorers
M. Porter Jr.
27pts · 9 of 17
G. Antetokounmpo
20pts · 8 of 10
By quarter
16Won by MIA
45:07MIA ledof 48:00
17Largest leadLead changes: 6
FINALOctober 14, 2026
Heat won by 16
every action, The river
R. Conwell — 26-foot 3, 6:36 left in the third, put the Heat ahead for goodFirst basket: Mitchell, 11:31 Q1 · last: 0:11 Q4MIA 86, BKN 84
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Heat took the edge for good at 6:48 in the third quarter, after the favourite had changed 6 times.
Heat
FINALHeat to win100%+13 in the Fourth quarterNets 0%
Nets① 14 points
② 14 points
All 607 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
14points
Biggest swing · Nets
6
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
607 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
607 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | BKNMIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | MIA +6 | MIA +14 pts | |
| Q2 | BKN +3 | BKN +5 pts | |
| Q3 | MIA +6 | MIA +22 pts | |
| Q4 | MIA +7 | MIA +13 pts |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 607 readings the river draws.
Runs · 4
Last playQ4 0:00 · BKN 128–MIA 144 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 143
One pin a scoring play — 143 scoring plays on 123 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
MIA 55 baskets, 144 pts · BKN 42 baskets, 128 pts
every action, Key beats
10 plays moved it 10 points or more — 10 of them in the third quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 60About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (14.3). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
4 runs
The Heat led for 45 minutes and by as many as 17 — their biggest run was 10–0 in the third quarter.
- Time leading
- MIA 45:07 · BKN 1:18
- Lead changes
- 6
- Tied
- 5
- Biggest lead
- MIA 17 · BKN 1
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
10–2
13–510–011–2
The game in chapters · points
The Heat won the fourth quarter 32–25 — the widest chapter of the game.
2929 ptsQ13535 pts
3737 ptsQ23434 pts
3737 ptsQ34343 pts
2525 ptsQ43232 pts
BKN left, MIA right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Heat went on a 10–0 run over 2:24 — a 9-point lead.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Heat went on a 10–2 run over 3:25 — a 7-point lead.
Run10–2Heat went on a 13–5 run over 3:16 — a 13-point lead.
Run13–5Heat went on a 10–0 run over 2:24 — a 9-point lead.
Run10–0Heat went on a 11–2 run over 2:17 — a 16-point lead.
Run11–2
The fives that closed it
BKNlevel
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 5:41 — Nets level.
MIAlevel
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 5:41 — Heat level.
Every stint, on and off
BKN closing five · the last 5:410
MIA closing five · the last 5:410
−5−3−2
−80−8
−80−8
−80−8
0−8+8
−3−5+2
0−8+8
0−8+8
−80−8
0−8+8
0−8+8
0−8+8
0−8+8
0−8+8
0+8−8
+80+8
0+8−8
+5+3+2
0+8−8
+80+8
+80+8
0+8−8
+80+8
+3+5−2
0+8−8
0+8−8
0+8−8
0+8−8
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Nets 128, Heat 144, final.