ZE
ZEBiggest swing · ATL at SAS
Z. Ejiofor 26' 3PT (5 PTS) (K. Flemings 5 AST).
Q4, 9:52.
Spurs 102, Hawks 101 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 571 readings · Final · October 8, 2026
+18to ATL
FINAL · ATL AT SAS
Hawks beat the Spurs by 7 — 123–116.
Our win probability · Hawks came back from a 6.6% chance at Q2 9:40 · the favourite changed 9 times
Final · October 8, 2026
Top scorers
SUB
16pts · 5 of 8
D. Harper REBOUND
16pts · 5 of 7
By quarter
7Won by ATL
7:50ATL ledof 48:00
12Largest leadLead changes: 5
FINALOctober 8, 2026
Hawks won by 7
every action, The river
A. Newell — 1-foot alley-oop layup, 5:49 left in the fourth, put the Hawks ahead for goodFirst basket: Castle, 11:06 Q1 · last: 0:24 Q4ATL 110, SAS 109
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Hawks took the edge for good at 5:49 in the fourth quarter, after the favourite had changed 9 times.
Spurs
FINALHawks to win100%+60 in the Fourth quarterSpurs 0%
Hawks① 18 points
② 17 points
All 571 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
18points
Biggest swing · Hawks
9
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
571 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
571 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | ATLSAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | SAS +19 | SAS +34 pts | |
| Q2 | ATL +12 | ATL +14 pts | |
| Q3 | ATL +5 | ATL +16 pts | |
| Q4 | ATL +9 | ATL +60 pts |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 571 readings the river draws.
Runs · 3
Last playQ4 0:00 · ATL 123–SAS 116 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 124
One pin a scoring play — 124 scoring plays on 108 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
SAS 37 baskets, 116 pts · ATL 46 baskets, 123 pts
every action, Key beats
15 plays moved it 10 points or more — 12 of them in the fourth quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 82About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (18.4). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
3 runs
The Spurs led for 38 minutes and by as many as 23 — the Hawks' 28–12 in the second quarter and a 30–21 fourth took it back.
- Time leading
- SAS 38:18 · ATL 7:50
- Lead changes
- 5
- Tied
- 4
- Biggest lead
- SAS 23 · ATL 12
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
19–2
28–12
13–0Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Spurs won the first quarter 39–20 — the widest chapter of the game.
2020 ptsQ13939 pts
4242 ptsQ23030 pts
3131 ptsQ32626 pts
3030 ptsQ42121 pts
ATL left, SAS right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Spurs went on a 19–2 run over 3:51 — a 20-point lead. The longest dry spell: Spurs went 4:23 without a point — Q4 6:01 to Q4 1:38 — while Hawks scored 13.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Spurs went on a 19–2 run over 3:51 — a 20-point lead.
Run19–2Hawks went 3:17 without a point — Q1 6:24 to Q1 3:07 — while Spurs scored 14.
Lull3:17Hawks went on a 28–12 run over 5:45 — the deficit down to 6.
Run28–12Hawks went on a 13–0 run over 4:08 — a 12-point lead.
Run13–0
The fives that closed it
ATL+5
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 3:55 — Hawks won that stretch by 5.
SAS−5
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 3:55 — Spurs lost that stretch by 5.
Every stint, on and off
ATL closing five · the last 3:55+5
SAS closing five · the last 3:55−5
−12+19−31
+1+6−5
+10−3+13
−2+9−11
+1+6−5
+1+6−5
+1+6−5
+22−15+37
−12+19−31
−13+20−33
+13−6+19
+9−2+11
+5+2+3
+6+1+5
+5+2+3
+6−13+19
+16−23+39
+18−25+43
−70−7
−10+3−13
−10+3−13
−14+7−21
−8+1−9
+7−14+21
−14+7−21
+9−16+25
−9+2−11
−4−3−1
−5−2−3
−5−2−3
−5−2−3
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Hawks 123, Spurs 116, final.