ES
ESBiggest swing · SAC at GSW
E. Sharp 16' pullup Jump Shot (7 PTS) (A. Karaban 1 AST).
Q4, 2:45.
Warriors 105, Kings 103 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 594 readings · Final · October 10, 2026
+19to SAC
FINAL · SAC AT GSW
Warriors beat the Kings by 5 — 111–106.
Our win probability · Warriors came back from a 41% chance at Q2 3:01 · the favourite changed 18 times
Final · October 10, 2026
Top scorers
D. Acuff Jr.
25pts · 8 of 15
Y. Lendeborg
23pts · 10 of 14
By quarter
5Won by GSW
39:01GSW ledof 48:00
10Largest leadLead changes: 12
FINALOctober 10, 2026
Warriors won by 5
every action, The river
B. Podziemski — 25-foot pullup 3, 7:42 left in the third, put the Warriors ahead for goodFirst basket: Lendeborg, 11:30 Q1 · last: 0:06 Q4GSW 72, SAC 70
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Warriors took the edge for good at 7:55 in the third quarter, after the favourite had changed 18 times.
Warriors
FINALWarriors to win100%+18 in the Fourth quarterKings 0%
Kings① 16 points
② 19 points
All 594 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
19points
Biggest swing · Kings
18
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
594 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
594 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | SACGSW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | SAC +1 | SAC +2 pts | |
| Q2 | GSW +6 | GSW +13 pts | |
| Q3 | GSW +3 | GSW +14 pts | |
| Q4 | SAC +3 | GSW +18 pts |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 594 readings the river draws.
Runs · 4
Last playQ4 0:00 · SAC 106–GSW 111 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 119
One pin a scoring play — 119 scoring plays on 98 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
GSW 38 baskets, 111 pts · SAC 38 baskets, 106 pts
every action, Key beats
16 plays moved it 10 points or more — 8 of them in the fourth quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 79About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (19.3). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
4 runs
The Warriors led for 39 minutes and by as many as 10 — their biggest run was 11–2 in the second quarter.
- Time leading
- GSW 39:01 · SAC 5:15
- Lead changes
- 12
- Tied
- 11
- Biggest lead
- GSW 10 · SAC 4
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
12–1
13–2
11–210–2
Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Warriors won the second quarter 37–31 — the widest chapter of the game.
2525 ptsQ12424 pts
3131 ptsQ23737 pts
2525 ptsQ32828 pts
2525 ptsQ42222 pts
SAC left, GSW right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Kings went on a 12–1 run over 2:55 — a 4-point lead. The longest dry spell: Kings went 3:12 without a point — Q2 2:00 to Q3 10:48 — while Warriors scored 7.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Kings went on a 12–1 run over 2:55 — a 4-point lead.
Run12–1Warriors went 3:07 without a point — Q1 4:03 to Q1 0:56 — while Kings scored 6.
Lull3:07Kings went on a 13–2 run over 3:12 — a 4-point lead.
Run13–2Warriors went 3:02 without a point — Q2 6:13 to Q2 3:11 — while Kings scored 10.
Lull3:02
The fives that closed it
SAC+3
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 6:03 — Kings won that stretch by 3.
GSWlevel
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 3:43 — Warriors level.
Every stint, on and off
SAC closing five · the last 6:03+3
GSW closing five · the last 3:430
−14+9−23
−21+16−37
+6−11+17
0−5+5
+2−7+9
−1−4+3
−50−5
−1−4+3
−2−3+1
−50−5
+1−6+7
+13−18+31
−1−4+3
+3−8+11
+18−13+31
+2+3−1
+18−13+31
+17−12+29
−6+11−17
−12+17−29
−13+18−31
−11+16−27
+9−4+13
+3+2+1
+2+3−1
+1+4−3
−3+8−11
0+5−5
0+5−5
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Kings 106, Warriors 111, final.