NR
NRBiggest swing · CHA at BOS
N. Reid 3PT running (12 PTS) (D. Schröder 2 AST).
Q4, 11:37.
Celtics 85, Hornets 80 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 577 readings · Final · October 14, 2026
+10to CHA
FINAL · CHA AT BOS
Celtics beat the Hornets by 21 — 114–93.
Our win probability · Celtics came back from a 48% chance at Q1 9:17 · the favourite changed 4 times
Final · October 14, 2026
Top scorers
SUB
16pts · 5 of 9
J. Tatum
19pts · 8 of 17
By quarter
21Won by BOS
45:21BOS ledof 48:00
23Largest leadLead changes: 4
FINALOctober 14, 2026
Celtics won by 21
every action, The river
J. Tatum — 13-foot turnaround jump shot, 8:08 left in the first, put the Celtics ahead for goodFirst basket: Robinson, 11:18 Q1 · last: 0:27 Q4BOS 8, CHA 7
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Celtics took the edge for good at 9:17 in the first quarter, after the favourite had changed 4 times.
Celtics
FINALCeltics to win100%+18 in the Fourth quarterHornets 0%
Hornets① 9 points
② 10 points
All 577 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
10points
Biggest swing · Hornets
4
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
577 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
577 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | CHABOS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | BOS +8 | BOS +18 pts | |
| Q2 | BOS +2 | BOS +5 pts | |
| Q3 | CHA +2 | BOS +2 pts | |
| Q4 | BOS +13 | BOS +18 pts |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 577 readings the river draws.
Runs · 7
Last playQ4 0:00 · CHA 93–BOS 114 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 105
One pin a scoring play — 105 scoring plays on 92 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
BOS 44 baskets, 114 pts · CHA 31 baskets, 93 pts
every action, Key beats
No play moved it 10 points — a game that was never in doubt.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 30About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (1.0). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
7 runs
The Celtics led for 45 minutes and by as many as 23 — their biggest run was 14–3 in the second quarter.
- Time leading
- BOS 45:21 · CHA 1:35
- Lead changes
- 4
- Tied
- 2
- Biggest lead
- BOS 23 · CHA 3
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
11–214–3
10–216–5
10–2
8–013–4
The game in chapters · points
The Celtics won the fourth quarter 29–16 — the widest chapter of the game.
2020 ptsQ12828 pts
2424 ptsQ22626 pts
3333 ptsQ33131 pts
1616 ptsQ42929 pts
CHA left, BOS right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Hornets went on a 16–5 run over 3:44 — the deficit down to 6. The longest dry spell: Hornets went 3:37 without a point — Q1 9:33 to Q1 5:56 — while Celtics scored 9.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Celtics went on a 11–2 run over 3:50 — a 6-point lead.
Run11–2Hornets went 3:37 without a point — Q1 9:33 to Q1 5:56 — while Celtics scored 9.
Lull3:37Celtics went on a 14–3 run over 4:39 — a 17-point lead.
Run14–3Hornets went 3:33 without a point — Q1 1:09 to Q2 9:36 — while Celtics scored 11.
Lull3:33
The fives that closed it
CHA−4
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 2:42 — Hornets lost that stretch by 4.
BOS+4
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 5:24 — Celtics won that stretch by 4.
Every stint, on and off
CHA closing five · the last 2:42−4
BOS closing five · the last 5:24+4
−12−9−3
−12−9−3
−14−7−7
−9−12+3
−9−12+3
−14−7−7
−9−12+3
−1−20+19
−8−13+5
−2−19+17
−5−16+11
−4−17+13
−2−19+17
−4−17+13
+19+2+17
+5+16−11
+210+21
+15+6+9
−6+27−33
+1+20−19
+11+10+1
+6+15−9
+7+14−7
+6+15−9
+6+15−9
+4+17−13
+4+17−13
+4+17−13
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Hornets 93, Celtics 114, final.