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live · 20s tick · as of 10:24 PM ET · 0s ago · 1 live · 1 final
Latest play: Game End. Every play as it lands, pushed on the live channel — the ribbon under the score says which transport is carrying this page.
Tonight’s room
Opening this game — the score, the clock and the win probability land together.
FINAL · MIA AT ORL
Our win probability · Magic came back from a 28% chance at Q1 3:17 · the favourite changed 32 times
Final · October 16, 2026
Top scorers
SUB
21pts · 9 of 17
P. Banchero
24pts · 5 of 11
By quarter
Magic won by 21
Our reading, one per play
Magic took the edge for good at 3:16 in the second quarter, after the favourite had changed 32 times.
11points
Biggest swing · Heat
32
Times the favourite changed
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
590 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
590 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | MIAORL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | MIA +2 | MIA +7 pts | |
| Q2 | ORL +7 | ORL +22 pts | |
| Q3 | ORL +8 | ORL +21 pts | |
| Q4 | ORL +8 | ORL +8 pts |
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 590 readings the river draws.
Runs · 6
Last playQ4 0:00 · MIA 115–ORL 136 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 131
One pin a scoring play — 131 scoring plays on 110 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
ORL 44 baskets, 136 pts · MIA 44 baskets, 115 pts
6 plays moved it 10 points or more — 3 of them in the third quarter.
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (11.5). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
Runs · the game’s tide
6 runs
The Magic led for 27 minutes and by as many as 23 — their biggest run was 23–9 in the third quarter.
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
17–6
18–615–213–523–915–5The game in chapters · points
The Magic won the third quarter 38–30 — the widest chapter of the game.
MIA left, ORL right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
Magic went on a 23–9 run over 4:14 — a 14-point lead.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Heat went on a 17–6 run over 4:48 — a 12-point lead.
Run17–6Magic went on a 18–6 run over 4:19 — level again.
Run18–6Magic went on a 15–2 run over 3:09 — a 8-point lead.
Run15–2Heat went on a 13–5 run over 2:50 — level again.
Run13–5The fives that closed it
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 7:26 — Heat lost that stretch by 11.
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 5:27 — Magic won that stretch by 6.
Every stint, on and off
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
Reading the outside line.
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
Reading tonight’s bands.
Heat 115, Magic 136, final.
