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polling · 5 min tick · as of 4:55 PM ET · 2 to play
Latest play: Game End. Every play as it lands, pushed on the live channel — the ribbon under the score says which transport is carrying this page.
Tonight’s room
Opening this game — the score, the clock and the win probability land together.
FINAL · ORL AT MEM
Our win probability · Magic came back from a 41% chance at Q3 11:10 · the favourite changed 17 times
Final · October 7, 2026
Top scorers
SUB
19pts · 6 of 16
T. Jerome
17pts · 7 of 14
By quarter
Magic won by 4
Our reading, one per play
Magic took the edge for good at 6:50 in the third quarter, after the favourite had changed 17 times.
37points
Biggest swing · Grizzlies
17
Times the favourite changed
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
602 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
602 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | ORLMEM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | ORL +10 | ORL +26 pts | |
| Q2 | MEM +7 | MEM +13 pts | |
| Q3 | ORL +4 | ORL +21 pts | |
| Q4 | MEM +3 | ORL +22 pts |
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 602 readings the river draws.
Runs · 4
Last playQ4 0:00 · ORL 122–MEM 118 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 121
One pin a scoring play — 121 scoring plays on 106 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
MEM 41 baskets, 118 pts · ORL 41 baskets, 122 pts
40 plays moved it 10 points or more — 27 of them in the fourth quarter.
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (36.7). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
Runs · the game’s tide
4 runs
The Magic led for 46 minutes and by as many as 18 — their biggest run was 17–5 in the first quarter.
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
9–017–5
9–011–0Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Magic won the first quarter 36–26 — the widest chapter of the game.
ORL left, MEM right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
Magic went on a 17–5 run over 4:20 — a 18-point lead. The longest dry spell: Magic went 3:01 without a point — Q3 5:36 to Q3 2:35 — while Grizzlies scored 6.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Magic went on a 9–0 run over 1:31 — a 12-point lead.
Run9–0Magic went on a 17–5 run over 4:20 — a 18-point lead.
Run17–5Grizzlies went on a 9–0 run over 2:03 — the deficit down to 9.
Run9–0Magic went on a 11–0 run over 2:07 — a 11-point lead.
Run11–0The fives that closed it
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 6:23 — Magic level.
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 3:59 — Grizzlies level.
Every stint, on and off
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
Reading the outside line.
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
Reading tonight’s bands.
Magic 122, Grizzlies 118, final.
