BB
BBBiggest swing · WAS at NYK
MISS B. Brown 17' pullup Shot.
Q4, 0:00.
Wizards 111, Knicks 109 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 583 readings · Final · October 8, 2026
+24to WAS
FINAL · WAS AT NYK
Wizards beat the Knicks by 2 — 111–109.
Our win probability · Wizards came back from a 13% chance at Q3 2:13 · the favourite changed 29 times
Final · October 8, 2026
Top scorers
A. Davis
16pts · 6 of 11
J. Brunson STEAL
13pts · 6 of 12
By quarter
2Won by WAS
17:33WAS ledof 48:00
9Largest leadLead changes: 12
FINALOctober 8, 2026
Wizards won by 2
every action, The river
B. Carrington — 18-foot pullup jump shot, 7:26 left in the fourth, put the Wizards ahead for goodFirst basket: Throw, 11:28 Q1 · last: 0:27 Q4WAS 94, NYK 92
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Wizards took the edge for good at 6:14 in the fourth quarter, after the favourite had changed 29 times.
Knicks
FINALWizards to win100%+64 in the Fourth quarterKnicks 0%
Wizards① 22 points
② 24 points
All 583 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
24points
Biggest swing · Wizards
29
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
583 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
583 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | WASNYK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | WAS +1 | WAS +2 pts | |
| Q2 | NYK +7 | NYK +16 pts | |
| Q3 | WAS +3 | WAS +6 pts | |
| Q4 | WAS +5 | WAS +64 pts |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 583 readings the river draws.
Runs · 3
Last playQ4 0:00 · WAS 111–NYK 109 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 116
One pin a scoring play — 116 scoring plays on 102 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
NYK 40 baskets, 109 pts · WAS 40 baskets, 111 pts
every action, Key beats
18 plays moved it 10 points or more — 14 of them in the fourth quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 97About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (24.1). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
3 runs
The Knicks led for 26 minutes and by as many as 10 — the Wizards' 10–0 in the first quarter and a 30–25 fourth took it back.
- Time leading
- NYK 25:58 · WAS 17:33
- Lead changes
- 12
- Tied
- 14
- Biggest lead
- NYK 10 · WAS 9
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
10–0
8–0
13–4
Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Knicks won the second quarter 34–27 — the widest chapter of the game.
3030 ptsQ12929 pts
2727 ptsQ23434 pts
2424 ptsQ32121 pts
3030 ptsQ42525 pts
WAS left, NYK right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Wizards went on a 10–0 run over 2:12 — a 7-point lead. The longest dry spell: Wizards went 3:13 without a point — Q3 7:15 to Q3 4:02 — while Knicks scored 8.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Wizards went on a 10–0 run over 2:12 — a 7-point lead.
Run10–0Knicks went on a 8–0 run over 1:10 — a 1-point lead.
Run8–0Knicks went on a 13–4 run over 3:07 — a 7-point lead.
Run13–4Wizards went 3:13 without a point — Q3 7:15 to Q3 4:02 — while Knicks scored 8.
Lull3:13
The fives that closed it
WASlevel
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 5:47 — Wizards level.
NYKlevel
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 3:55 — Knicks level.
Every stint, on and off
WAS closing five · the last 5:470
NYK closing five · the last 3:550
−1+3−4
+3−1+4
−2+4−6
+1+10
−5+7−12
+3−1+4
+8−6+14
−4+6−10
−1+3−4
−1+3−4
−6+8−14
+12−10+22
0+2−2
0+2−2
+7−5+12
−20−2
−3+1−4
−20−2
−20−2
+2−4+6
+2−4+6
+5−7+12
+2−4+6
+2−4+6
+8−10+18
−12+10−22
−5+3−8
−20−2
−20−2
−1−10
0−2+2
0−2+2
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Wizards 111, Knicks 109, final.