Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers

FINAL · SAC AT LAL

Lakers beat the Kings by 4 — 114–110.

Our win probability · Lakers came back from a 48% chance at Q1 6:52 · the favourite changed 4 times

Final · October 8, 2026

Top scorers

P. Achiuwa REBOUND

18pts · 9 of 13

L. Don

23pts · 6 of 16

By quarter

Club	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
SAC	20	23	27	40
LAL	21	36	29	28

4Won by LAL

44:35LAL ledof 48:00

19Largest leadLead changes: 6

← Tonight’s games

FINALOctober 8, 2026

Lakers won by 4

every action, The river

Q. Grimes Free Throw — free throw, 11:12 left in the second, put the Lakers ahead for goodFirst basket: Don, 11:27 Q1 · last: 0:00 Q4LAL 23, SAC 22

Win probability

Our reading, one per play

Lakers took the edge for good at 6:25 in the first quarter, after the favourite had changed 4 times.

Lakers

Lakers to win100%+5 in the Fourth quarterKings 0%

Kings

FINAL

① 11 points

② 13 pointsW. Kyle

All 641 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.

13points

Biggest swing · Lakers

Times the favourite changed

Where this number comes from

Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.

641 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.

Quarter flow

641 readings

Quarter	Score	Win chance
Q1	LAL +1	LAL +3 pts
Q2	LAL +13	LAL +27 pts
Q3	LAL +2	LAL +8 pts
Q4	SAC +12	LAL +5 pts

Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it

About the quarter flow

Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 641 readings the river draws.

Runs · 6

Last playQ4 0:00 · SAC 110–LAL 114 · End, game · held

Scoring plays · 125

One pin a scoring play — 125 scoring plays on 107 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.

LAL 36 baskets, 114 pts · SAC 42 baskets, 110 pts

every action, Key beats

2 plays moved it 10 points or more — 2 of them in the fourth quarter.

How much a play had to move it

Every 5-point move shows 27

About these bars

Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (12.6). A tap puts the river’s head on it.

every possession, Runs and the clutch

Runs · the game’s tide

6 runs

The Lakers led for 45 minutes and by as many as 19 — their biggest run was 19–3 in the second quarter.

Time leading: LAL 44:35 · SAC 2:52
Lead changes: 6
Tied: 1
Biggest lead: LAL 19 · SAC 3
Pace: —

— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.

8–0

19–3

17–6

12–1

11–2

16–1

Clutch · last 5:00, within 5

The game in chapters · points

The Lakers won the second quarter 36–23 — the widest chapter of the game.

2020 ptsQ12121 pts

2323 ptsQ23636 pts

2727 ptsQ32929 pts

4040 ptsQ42828 pts

SAC left, LAL right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.

↗

every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor

Lakers went on a 19–3 run over 4:26 — a 15-point lead. The longest dry spell: Kings went 3:09 without a point — Q2 9:21 to Q2 6:12 — while Lakers scored 11.

Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock

Lakers went on a 8–0 run over 2:25 — a 5-point lead.
Run8–0
Kings went 3:01 without a point — Q1 7:18 to Q1 4:17 — while Lakers scored 8.
Lull3:01
Lakers went on a 19–3 run over 4:26 — a 15-point lead.
Run19–3
Kings went 3:09 without a point — Q2 9:21 to Q2 6:12 — while Lakers scored 11.
Lull3:09

The fives that closed it

SAC+13

A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file

Closed the game together from Q4 6:10 — Kings won that stretch by 13.

LAL−4

A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file

Closed the game together from Q4 0:26 — Lakers lost that stretch by 4.

Every stint, on and off

SAC closing five · the last 6:10+13

LAL closing five · the last 0:26−4

−2−20

−15+11−26

−9+5−14

−6+2−8

+9−13+22

+14−18+32

+3−7+10

−7+3−10

−1−3+2

+1−5+6

+9−13+22

−9+5−14

−3−1−2

−40−4

+3+1+2

+8−4+12

+17−13+30

−4+8−12

+2+20

+15−11+26

+6−2+8

+1+3−2

−9+13−22

−5+9−14

−6+10−16

−7+11−18

−3+7−10

Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.

every action, Two models

Reading the outside line.

every possession, Projection

The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.

every action, Against his band

Reading tonight’s bands.

Lakers beat the Kings by 4 — 114–110.

W. Kyle cutting DUNK (2 PTS) (B. James 6 AST).

every action, The river

Win probability

every action, Key beats

every possession, Runs and the clutch

every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor

every action, Two models

every possession, Projection

every action, Against his band

overnight, What it came down to