Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic

FINAL · CLE AT ORL

Magic beat the Cavaliers by 16 — 132–116.

Our win probability · Magic never fell below 55%

Final · October 13, 2026

Top scorers

SUB

16pts · 6 of 9

P. Banchero

24pts · 10 of 13

By quarter

Club	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
CLE	28	24	31	33
ORL	35	37	36	24

16Won by ORL

47:13ORL ledof 48:00

31Largest leadLead changes: none

← Tonight’s games

FINALOctober 13, 2026

Magic won by 16

every action, The river

Magic led from the first basket to the horn.First basket: Banchero, 11:13 Q1 · last: 0:12 Q4

Win probability

Our reading, one per play

Magic held the edge from the first reading to the horn — the favourite never changed.

Magic

Magic to win100%+1 in the Fourth quarterCavaliers 0%

Cavaliers

FINAL

① 8 points

② 9 pointsJ. Suggs

All 573 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.

9points

Biggest swing · Magic

Times the favourite changed

Where this number comes from

Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.

573 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.

Quarter flow

573 readings

Quarter	Score	Win chance
Q1	ORL +7	ORL +16 pts
Q2	ORL +13	ORL +22 pts
Q3	ORL +5	ORL +5 pts
Q4	CLE +9	ORL +1 pts

Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it

About the quarter flow

Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 573 readings the river draws.

Runs · 4

Last playQ4 0:00 · CLE 116–ORL 132 · End, game · held

Scoring plays · 130

One pin a scoring play — 130 scoring plays on 111 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.

ORL 50 baskets, 132 pts · CLE 41 baskets, 116 pts

every action, Key beats

No play moved it 10 points — a game that was never in doubt.

How much a play had to move it

Every 5-point move shows 20

About these bars

Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (1.0). A tap puts the river’s head on it.

every possession, Runs and the clutch

Runs · the game’s tide

4 runs

The Magic led for 47 minutes and by as many as 31 — their biggest run was 11–0 in the second quarter.

Time leading: ORL 47:13 · CLE 0:00
Lead changes: 0
Tied: 0
Biggest lead: ORL 31 · CLE —
Pace: —

— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.

11–0

13–3

10–2

14–5

The game in chapters · points

The Magic won the second quarter 37–24 — the widest chapter of the game.

2828 ptsQ13535 pts

2424 ptsQ23737 pts

3131 ptsQ33636 pts

3333 ptsQ42424 pts

CLE left, ORL right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.

↗

every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor

Magic went on a 11–0 run over 1:41 — a 16-point lead.

Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock

Magic went on a 11–0 run over 1:41 — a 16-point lead.
Run11–0
Magic went on a 13–3 run over 3:26 — a 25-point lead.
Run13–3
Magic went on a 10–2 run over 2:32 — a 31-point lead.
Run10–2
Cavaliers went on a 14–5 run over 3:46 — the deficit down to 12.
Run14–5

The fives that closed it

CLE−3

A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file

Closed the game together from Q4 3:42 — Cavaliers lost that stretch by 3.

ORL+4

A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file

Closed the game together from Q4 2:18 — Magic won that stretch by 4.

Every stint, on and off

CLE closing five · the last 3:42−3

ORL closing five · the last 2:18+4

−19+3−22

−160−16

−4−12+8

−19+3−22

−3−13+10

+6−22+28

+1−17+18

−1−15+14

+8−24+32

+5−21+26

−3−13+10

+20−4+24

+21−5+26

+4+12−8

+21−5+26

+20−4+24

+4+12−8

+6+10−4

+1+15−14

−8+24−32

+15+1+14

−5+21−26

−11+27−38

−2+18−20

+4+12−8

Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.

every action, Two models

Reading the outside line.

every possession, Projection

The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.

every action, Against his band

Reading tonight’s bands.

Magic beat the Cavaliers by 16 — 132–116.

J. Suggs 25' 3PT (3 PTS) (F. Wagner 2 AST).

every action, The river

Win probability

every action, Key beats

every possession, Runs and the clutch

every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor

every action, Two models

every possession, Projection

every action, Against his band

overnight, What it came down to