Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder

FINAL · IND AT OKC

Thunder beat the Pacers by 2 — 114–112.

Our win probability · Thunder came back from a 12% chance at Q2 7:14 · the favourite changed 34 times

Final · OT · October 13, 2026

Top scorers

T. Haliburton

24pts · 9 of 14

SUB

20pts · 6 of 13

By quarter

Club	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT
IND	33	28	23	16	12
OKC	25	34	26	15	14

2Won by OKC

19:39OKC ledof 53:00

7Largest leadLead changes: 14

← Tonight’s games

FINALOT · October 13, 2026

Thunder won by 2

every action, The river

Z. Smith — 19-foot pullup jump shot, 0:45 left in overtime, put the Thunder ahead for goodFirst basket: Gilgeous-Alexander, 11:23 Q1 · last: 0:45 OTOKC 114, IND 112

Win probability

Our reading, one per play

Thunder took the edge for good at 0:45 in overtime, after the favourite had changed 34 times.

Thunder

Thunder to win100%+34 in the OvertimePacers 0%

Pacers

FINAL

① 42 points

② 42 pointsR. Mast

All 637 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.

42points

Biggest swing · Pacers

Times the favourite changed

Where this number comes from

Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.

637 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.

Quarter flow

637 readings

Quarter	Score	Win chance
Q1	IND +8	IND +19 pts
Q2	OKC +6	OKC +13 pts
Q3	OKC +3	OKC +11 pts
Q4	IND +1	OKC +5 pts
OT	OKC +2	OKC +34 pts

Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it

About the quarter flow

Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 637 readings the river draws.

Runs · 7

Last playOT 0:00 · IND 112–OKC 114 · End, game · held

Scoring plays · 112

One pin a scoring play — 112 scoring plays on 102 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.

OKC 43 baskets, 114 pts · IND 43 baskets, 112 pts

every action, Key beats

43 plays moved it 10 points or more — 17 of them in the fourth quarter.

How much a play had to move it

Every 5-point move shows 119

About these bars

Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (42.5). A tap puts the river’s head on it.

every possession, Runs and the clutch

Runs · the game’s tide

7 runs

The Pacers led for 29 minutes and by as many as 20 — the Thunder' 27–9 in the second quarter and a 14–12 overtime took it back.

Time leading: OKC 19:39 · IND 28:51
Lead changes: 14
Tied: 11
Biggest lead: OKC 7 · IND 20
Pace: —

— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.

25–8

15–5

16–2

27–9

10–2

11–2

8–0

Clutch · last 5:00, within 5

The game in chapters · points

The Pacers won the first quarter 33–25 — the widest chapter of the game.

3333 ptsQ12525 pts

2828 ptsQ23434 pts

2323 ptsQ32626 pts

1616 ptsQ41515 pts

1212 ptsOT1414 pts

IND left, OKC right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.

↗

every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor

Thunder went on a 27–9 run over 6:53 — the deficit down to 2. The longest dry spell: Pacers went 4:54 without a point — Q3 3:13 to Q4 10:19 — while Thunder scored 5.

Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock

Pacers went on a 25–8 run over 6:49 — a 16-point lead.
Run25–8
Thunder went on a 15–5 run over 3:46 — the deficit down to 6.
Run15–5
Pacers went on a 16–2 run over 3:16 — a 20-point lead.
Run16–2
Thunder went on a 27–9 run over 6:53 — the deficit down to 2.
Run27–9

The fives that closed it

IND−2

A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file

Closed the game together from OT 5:00 — Pacers lost that stretch by 2.

OKClevel

A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file

Closed the game together from OT 3:58 — Thunder level.

Every stint, on and off

IND closing five · the last 5:00−2

OKC closing five · the last 3:580

0−2+2

−9+7−16

−3+1−4

+7−9+16

−1−10

+6−8+14

+7−9+16

+9−11+20

−14+12−26

−16+14−30

+5−7+12

−6+4−10

−5+3−8

−20−2

−7+9−16

+7−5+12

+11−9+20

−9+11−20

+1+10

+10−8+18

−4+6−10

+11−9+20

+7−5+12

+20+2

−7+9−16

+1+10

−11+13−24

−1+3−4

−4+6−10

+20+2

0+2−2

Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.

every action, Two models

Reading the outside line.

every possession, Projection

The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.

every action, Against his band

Reading tonight’s bands.

Thunder beat the Pacers by 2 — 114–112.

R. Mast 3PT (9 PTS) (J. Slawson 3 AST).

every action, The river

Win probability

every action, Key beats

every possession, Runs and the clutch

every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor

every action, Two models

every possession, Projection

every action, Against his band

overnight, What it came down to