Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers

FINAL · GSW AT LAL

Warriors beat the Lakers by 12 — 101–89.

Our win probability · Warriors came back from a 5.0% chance at Q3 9:06 · the favourite changed 1 time

Final · October 13, 2026

Top scorers

B. Podziemski Free Throw

17pts · 6 of 12

A. Reaves

28pts · 10 of 18

By quarter

Club	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
GSW	29	21	22	29
LAL	29	34	13	13

12Won by GSW

9:46GSW ledof 48:00

12Largest leadLead changes: 7

← Tonight’s games

FINALOctober 13, 2026

Warriors won by 12

every action, The river

B. Podziemski — 26-foot 3, 8:38 left in the fourth, put the Warriors ahead for goodFirst basket: Grimes, 11:27 Q1 · last: 0:55 Q4GSW 81, LAL 78

Win probability

Our reading, one per play

Warriors took the edge for good at 8:38 in the fourth quarter, after the favourite had changed 1 time.

Lakers

Warriors to win100%+72 in the Fourth quarterLakers 0%

Warriors

FINAL

① 16 pointsB. Podziemski

② 13 points

All 617 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.

16points

Biggest swing · Warriors

Times the favourite changed

Where this number comes from

Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.

617 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.

Quarter flow

617 readings

Quarter	Score	Win chance
Q1	Level	GSW +2 pts
Q2	LAL +13	LAL +31 pts
Q3	GSW +9	GSW +13 pts
Q4	GSW +16	GSW +72 pts

Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it

About the quarter flow

Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 617 readings the river draws.

Runs · 5

Last playQ4 0:00 · GSW 101–LAL 89 · End, game · held

Scoring plays · 101

One pin a scoring play — 101 scoring plays on 87 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.

LAL 33 baskets, 89 pts · GSW 33 baskets, 101 pts

every action, Key beats

6 plays moved it 10 points or more — 4 of them in the fourth quarter.

How much a play had to move it

Every 5-point move shows 56

About these bars

Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (15.7). A tap puts the river’s head on it.

every possession, Runs and the clutch

Runs · the game’s tide

5 runs

The Lakers led for 35 minutes and by as many as 20 — the Warriors' 14–0 in the third quarter and a 29–13 fourth took it back.

Time leading: LAL 34:33 · GSW 9:46
Lead changes: 7
Tied: 5
Biggest lead: LAL 20 · GSW 12
Pace: —

— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.

10–2

16–4

11–0

14–0

8–0

The game in chapters · points

The Warriors won the fourth quarter 29–13 — the widest chapter of the game.

2929 ptsQ12929 pts

2121 ptsQ23434 pts

2222 ptsQ31313 pts

2929 ptsQ41313 pts

GSW left, LAL right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.

↗

every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor

Warriors went on a 14–0 run over 3:38 — the deficit down to 6. The longest dry spell: Lakers went 4:39 without a point — Q3 9:06 to Q3 4:27 — while Warriors scored 14.

Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock

Warriors went on a 10–2 run over 3:15 — a 1-point lead.
Run10–2
Lakers went on a 16–4 run over 4:51 — a 14-point lead.
Run16–4
Warriors went 3:06 without a point — Q2 6:43 to Q2 3:37 — while Lakers scored 9.
Lull3:06
Lakers went on a 11–0 run over 4:18 — a 20-point lead.
Run11–0

The fives that closed it

GSWlevel

A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file

Closed the game together from Q4 5:05 — Warriors level.

LALlevel

A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file

Closed the game together from Q4 2:20 — Lakers level.

Every stint, on and off

GSW closing five · the last 5:050

LAL closing five · the last 2:200

0−1+1

+2−3+5

−10−1

+1−2+3

−6+5−11

−3+2−5

−2+1−3

−10−1

+5−6+11

0−1+1

−1+2−3

+3−2+5

−1+2−3

−2+3−5

+4−3+7

+10+1

−3+4−7

0+1−1

Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.

every action, Two models

Reading the outside line.

every possession, Projection

The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.

every action, Against his band

Reading tonight’s bands.

Warriors beat the Lakers by 12 — 101–89.

B. Podziemski 26' 3PT (17 PTS) (C. Bassey 1 AST).

every action, The river

Win probability

every action, Key beats

every possession, Runs and the clutch

every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor

every action, Two models

every possession, Projection

every action, Against his band

overnight, What it came down to