Biggest swing · POR at SAC
D. Avdija 26' 3PT (13 PTS) (V. Krejčí 1 AST).
Q2, 7:30.
Trail Blazers 48, Kings 32 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 629 readings · Final · October 13, 2026
+7to POR
FINAL · POR AT SAC
Trail Blazers beat the Kings by 12 — 110–98.
Our win probability · Trail Blazers came back from a 44% chance at Q1 12:00 · the favourite changed 9 times
Final · October 13, 2026
Top scorers
D. Avdija
26pts · 9 of 13
SUB
15pts · 5 of 10
By quarter
12Won by POR
47:39POR ledof 48:00
35Largest leadLead changes: none
FINALOctober 13, 2026
Trail Blazers won by 12
every action, The river
Trail Blazers led from the first basket to the horn.First basket: Avdija, 11:39 Q1 · last: 0:12 Q4Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Trail Blazers took the edge for good at 7:46 in the first quarter, after the favourite had changed 9 times.
Kings
FINALTrail Blazers to win100%+1 in the Fourth quarterKings 0%
Trail Blazers① 7 points
② 7 points
All 629 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
7points
Biggest swing · Trail Blazers
9
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
629 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
629 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | PORSAC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | POR +11 | POR +28 pts | |
| Q2 | POR +16 | POR +24 pts | |
| Q3 | Level | POR +3 pts | |
| Q4 | SAC +15 | POR +1 pts |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 629 readings the river draws.
Runs · 6
Last playQ4 0:00 · POR 110–SAC 98 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 115
One pin a scoring play — 115 scoring plays on 96 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
SAC 30 baskets, 98 pts · POR 39 baskets, 110 pts
every action, Key beats
No play moved it 10 points — a game that was never in doubt.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 14About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (1.0). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
6 runs
The Trail Blazers led for 48 minutes and by as many as 35 — their biggest run was 20–4 in the second quarter.
- Time leading
- SAC 0:00 · POR 47:39
- Lead changes
- 0
- Tied
- 0
- Biggest lead
- SAC — · POR 35
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
11–3
10–0
20–4
15–3
16–2
10–0
The game in chapters · points
The Trail Blazers won the second quarter 33–17 — the widest chapter of the game.
3333 ptsQ12222 pts
3333 ptsQ21717 pts
2727 ptsQ32727 pts
1717 ptsQ43232 pts
POR left, SAC right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Trail Blazers went on a 20–4 run over 6:24 — a 29-point lead. The longest dry spell: Kings went 4:18 without a point — Q3 3:08 to Q4 10:50 — while Trail Blazers scored 10.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Trail Blazers went on a 11–3 run over 1:49 — a 11-point lead.
Run11–3Trail Blazers went on a 10–0 run over 2:07 — a 19-point lead.
Run10–0Trail Blazers went on a 20–4 run over 6:24 — a 29-point lead.
Run20–4Kings went 3:09 without a point — Q2 7:44 to Q2 4:35 — while Trail Blazers scored 10.
Lull3:09
The fives that closed it
POR−13
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 6:59 — Trail Blazers lost that stretch by 13.
SAC+5
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 4:02 — Kings won that stretch by 5.
Every stint, on and off
POR closing five · the last 6:59−13
SAC closing five · the last 4:02+5
+23−8+31
+5+10−5
+35−20+55
+10+5+5
+16−1+17
+12+3+9
+12+3+9
+1+14−13
+150+15
−12+27−39
+10+5+5
−13+28−41
−13+28−41
−13+28−41
−13+28−41
−19+4−23
−14−1−13
+11−26+37
+8−23+31
−9−6−3
+1−16+17
−4−11+7
−24+9−33
−2−13+11
−9−6−3
−14−1−13
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Trail Blazers 110, Kings 98, final.