NB
NBBiggest swing · TOR at DET
N. Burnett 24' 3PT (17 PTS) (T. Degenhart 4 AST).
Q4, 0:06.
Pistons 125, Raptors 124 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 650 readings · Final · October 16, 2026
+33to TOR
FINAL · TOR AT DET
Pistons beat the Raptors by 4 — 129–125.
Our win probability · Pistons came back from a 32% chance at Q4 6:48 · the favourite changed 32 times
Final · October 16, 2026
Top scorers
SUB
24pts · 8 of 18
C. Cunningham
18pts · 8 of 12
By quarter
4Won by DET
31:01DET ledof 48:00
14Largest leadLead changes: 18
FINALOctober 16, 2026
Pistons won by 4
every action, The river
E. Harkless — 2-foot running dunk, 5:43 left in the fourth, put the Pistons ahead for goodFirst basket: Duren, 11:41 Q1 · last: 0:03 Q4DET 106, TOR 104
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Pistons took the edge for good at 5:44 in the fourth quarter, after the favourite had changed 32 times.
Pistons
FINALPistons to win100%+8 in the Fourth quarterRaptors 0%
Raptors① 26 points
② 33 points
All 650 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
33points
Biggest swing · Raptors
32
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
650 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
650 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | TORDET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Level | DET +1 pts | |
| Q2 | DET +7 | DET +16 pts | |
| Q3 | DET +6 | DET +19 pts | |
| Q4 | TOR +9 | DET +8 pts |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 650 readings the river draws.
Runs · 4
Last playQ4 0:00 · TOR 125–DET 129 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 143
One pin a scoring play — 143 scoring plays on 118 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
DET 47 baskets, 129 pts · TOR 36 baskets, 125 pts
every action, Key beats
28 plays moved it 10 points or more — 24 of them in the fourth quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 97About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (32.8). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
4 runs
The Pistons led for 31 minutes and by as many as 14 — their biggest run was 11–2 in the third quarter.
- Time leading
- DET 31:01 · TOR 9:17
- Lead changes
- 18
- Tied
- 14
- Biggest lead
- DET 14 · TOR 7
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
9–0
11–2
15–012–4
Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Raptors won the fourth quarter 45–36 — the widest chapter of the game.
3333 ptsQ13333 pts
1919 ptsQ22626 pts
2828 ptsQ33434 pts
4545 ptsQ43636 pts
TOR left, DET right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Raptors went on a 15–0 run over 2:45 — a 3-point lead. The longest dry spell: Pistons went 3:00 without a point — Q4 9:33 to Q4 6:33 — while Raptors scored 15.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Raptors went on a 9–0 run over 1:40 — a 7-point lead.
Run9–0Pistons went on a 11–2 run over 2:35 — a 13-point lead.
Run11–2Raptors went on a 15–0 run over 2:45 — a 3-point lead.
Run15–0Pistons went 3:00 without a point — Q4 9:33 to Q4 6:33 — while Raptors scored 15.
Lull3:00
The fives that closed it
TORlevel
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 0:03 — Raptors level.
DETlevel
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 0:03 — Pistons level.
Every stint, on and off
TOR closing five · the last 0:030
DET closing five · the last 0:030
+4−8+12
+1−5+6
−5+1−6
0−4+4
+6−10+16
+7−11+18
−13+9−22
−13+9−22
−10+6−16
+3−7+10
+6−2+8
+10−6+16
+6−2+8
+7−3+10
+3+1+2
+1+3−2
+10−6+16
+7−3+10
+6−2+8
−9+13−22
+6−2+8
−13+17−30
−5+9−14
−14+18−32
−14+18−32
+1+3−2
+7−3+10
+7−3+10
+40+4
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Raptors 125, Pistons 129, final.