RO
ROBiggest swing · CHA at MEM
R. O'Neale 26' 3PT pullup (6 PTS) (D. Schröder 1 AST).
Q1, 0:51.
Grizzlies 21, Hornets 20 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 616 readings · Final · October 16, 2026
+10to CHA
FINAL · CHA AT MEM
Grizzlies beat the Hornets by 18 — 116–98.
Our win probability · Grizzlies came back from a 30% chance at Q1 3:52 · the favourite changed 6 times
Final · October 16, 2026
Top scorers
SUB
19pts · 7 of 9
C. Boozer REBOUND
19pts · 4 of 13
By quarter
18Won by MEM
38:25MEM ledof 48:00
29Largest leadLead changes: 3
FINALOctober 16, 2026
Grizzlies won by 18
every action, The river
J. Wells Free Throw — free throw, 3:56 left in the second, put the Grizzlies ahead for goodFirst basket: Schr, 11:09 Q1 · last: 0:24 Q4MEM 34, CHA 33
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Grizzlies took the edge for good at 1:49 in the first quarter, after the favourite had changed 6 times.
Grizzlies
FINALGrizzlies to win100%+3 in the Fourth quarterHornets 0%
Hornets① 10 points
② 9 points
All 616 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
10points
Biggest swing · Hornets
6
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
616 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
616 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | CHAMEM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | MEM +3 | MEM +8 pts | |
| Q2 | MEM +9 | MEM +20 pts | |
| Q3 | MEM +5 | MEM +13 pts | |
| Q4 | MEM +1 | MEM +3 pts |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 616 readings the river draws.
Runs · 6
Last playQ4 0:00 · CHA 98–MEM 116 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 123
One pin a scoring play — 123 scoring plays on 97 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
MEM 37 baskets, 117 pts · CHA 31 baskets, 98 pts
every action, Key beats
No play moved it 10 points — a game that was never in doubt.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 20About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (1.0). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
6 runs
The Grizzlies led for 38 minutes and by as many as 29 — their biggest run was 21–1 in the third quarter.
- Time leading
- MEM 38:25 · CHA 6:52
- Lead changes
- 3
- Tied
- 3
- Biggest lead
- MEM 29 · CHA 11
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
8–0
19–3
21–1
11–2
16–5
13–2The game in chapters · points
The Grizzlies won the second quarter 27–18 — the widest chapter of the game.
2020 ptsQ12323 pts
1818 ptsQ22727 pts
2424 ptsQ32929 pts
3636 ptsQ43737 pts
CHA left, MEM right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Grizzlies went on a 21–1 run over 4:16 — a 23-point lead. The longest dry spell: Hornets went 4:07 without a point — Q2 1:08 to Q3 9:01 — while Grizzlies scored 19.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Hornets went on a 8–0 run over 2:22 — a 11-point lead.
Run8–0Grizzlies went on a 19–3 run over 4:46 — a 5-point lead.
Run19–3Hornets went 3:33 without a point — Q1 4:24 to Q1 0:51 — while Grizzlies scored 15.
Lull3:33Hornets went 3:42 without a point — Q2 11:28 to Q2 7:46 — while Grizzlies scored 4.
Lull3:42
The fives that closed it
CHA−6
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 4:34 — Hornets lost that stretch by 6.
MEM+6
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 4:34 — Grizzlies won that stretch by 6.
Every stint, on and off
CHA closing five · the last 4:34−6
MEM closing five · the last 4:34+6
−3−15+12
0−18+18
−6−12+6
−180−18
0−18+18
−180−18
−12−6−6
−6−12+6
0−18+18
−9−90
−6−12+6
−12−6−6
0−18+18
+6+12−6
+1+17−16
+12+6+6
+20−2+22
+12+6+6
0+18−18
0+18−18
−8+26−34
+11+7+4
+6+12−6
+6+12−6
+6+12−6
+6+12−6
+6+12−6
+6+12−6
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Hornets 98, Grizzlies 116, final.