Biggest swing · WAS at NOP
NOP Timeout.
Q4, 0:17.
Pelicans 105, Wizards 103 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 621 readings · Final · October 16, 2026
+14to NOP
FINAL · WAS AT NOP
Pelicans beat the Wizards by 1 — 107–106.
Our win probability · Pelicans came back from a 46% chance at Q1 10:26 · the favourite changed 2 times
Final · October 16, 2026
Top scorers
A. Davis
14pts · 6 of 14
SUB
19pts · 7 of 11
By quarter
1Won by NOP
41:48NOP ledof 48:00
14Largest leadLead changes: 3
FINALOctober 16, 2026
Pelicans won by 1
every action, The river
Y. Missi — 1-foot alley-oop dunk, 5:06 left in the first, put the Pelicans ahead for goodFirst basket: Davis, 10:54 Q1 · last: 0:00 Q4NOP 12, WAS 10
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Pelicans took the edge for good at 10:05 in the first quarter, after the favourite had changed 2 times.
Pelicans
FINALPelicans to win100%+10 in the Fourth quarterWizards 0%
Wizards① 12 points
② 14 points
All 621 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
14points
Biggest swing · Pelicans
2
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
621 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
621 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | WASNOP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | NOP +6 | NOP +14 pts | |
| Q2 | WAS +1 | Flat | |
| Q3 | NOP +6 | NOP +20 pts | |
| Q4 | WAS +10 | NOP +10 pts |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 621 readings the river draws.
Runs · 3
Last playQ4 0:00 · WAS 106–NOP 107 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 115
One pin a scoring play — 115 scoring plays on 99 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
NOP 43 baskets, 107 pts · WAS 36 baskets, 106 pts
every action, Key beats
11 plays moved it 10 points or more — 6 of them in the fourth quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 52About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (13.6). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
3 runs
The Pelicans led for 42 minutes and by as many as 14 — their biggest run was 10–0 in the third quarter.
- Time leading
- NOP 41:48 · WAS 1:47
- Lead changes
- 3
- Tied
- 4
- Biggest lead
- NOP 14 · WAS 4
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
10–210–0
15–5
Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Wizards won the fourth quarter 36–26 — the widest chapter of the game.
1717 ptsQ12323 pts
3434 ptsQ23333 pts
1919 ptsQ32525 pts
3636 ptsQ42626 pts
WAS left, NOP right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Wizards went on a 15–5 run over 2:49 — the deficit down to 1. The longest dry spell: Wizards went 3:44 without a point — Q2 0:33 to Q3 8:49 — while Pelicans scored 4.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Pelicans went on a 10–2 run over 3:21 — a 6-point lead.
Run10–2Wizards went 3:44 without a point — Q2 0:33 to Q3 8:49 — while Pelicans scored 4.
Lull3:44Pelicans went on a 10–0 run over 3:18 — a 13-point lead.
Run10–0Wizards went 3:30 without a point — Q3 4:03 to Q3 0:33 — while Pelicans scored 10.
Lull3:30
The fives that closed it
WAS+6
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 3:10 — Wizards won that stretch by 6.
NOP−11
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 8:44 — Pelicans lost that stretch by 11.
Every stint, on and off
WAS closing five · the last 3:10+6
NOP closing five · the last 8:44−11
−9+6−15
+4−7+11
+4−7+11
−30−3
−5+2−7
+4−7+11
−14+11−25
−5+2−7
−16+13−29
−2−1−1
+7−10+17
+7−10+17
+7−10+17
−8+5−13
+6−9+15
+2−5+7
+6−9+15
+5−2+7
−7+10−17
−8+11−19
−7+10−17
+21−18+39
−3+6−9
+22−19+41
+21−18+39
+9−6+15
+19−16+35
−11+14−25
−11+14−25
−11+14−25
−11+14−25
−11+14−25
−2+5−7
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Wizards 106, Pelicans 107, final.