ZL
ZLBiggest swing · SAC at SAS
Z. LaVine 3PT (5 PTS) (B. Simmons 1 AST).
Q1, 8:52.
Spurs 14, Kings 7 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 607 readings · Final · October 16, 2026
+7to SAC
FINAL · SAC AT SAS
Spurs beat the Kings by 29 — 126–97.
Our win probability · Spurs never fell below 51%
Final · October 16, 2026
Top scorers
Z. LaVine
20pts · 6 of 12
D. Harper
19pts · 7 of 12
By quarter
29Won by SAS
47:07SAS ledof 48:00
37Largest leadLead changes: 1
FINALOctober 16, 2026
Spurs won by 29
every action, The river
D. Harper Free Throw — free throw, 11:07 left in the first, put the Spurs ahead for goodFirst basket: LaVine, 11:14 Q1 · last: 0:53 Q4SAS 3, SAC 2
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Spurs held the edge from the first reading to the horn — the favourite never changed.
Spurs
FINALSpurs to win100%Kings 0%
Kings① 7 points
② 7 points
All 607 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
7points
Biggest swing · Kings
0
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
607 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
607 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | SACSAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | SAS +24 | SAS +37 pts | |
| Q2 | SAS +10 | SAS +6 pts | |
| Q3 | SAC +5 | SAS +1 pts | |
| Q4 | Level | Flat |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 607 readings the river draws.
Runs · 7
Last playQ4 0:00 · SAC 97–SAS 126 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 122
One pin a scoring play — 122 scoring plays on 104 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
SAS 44 baskets, 126 pts · SAC 34 baskets, 97 pts
every action, Key beats
No play moved it 10 points — a game that was never in doubt.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 7About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (1.0). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
7 runs
The Spurs led for 47 minutes and by as many as 37 — their biggest run was 33–7 in the first quarter.
- Time leading
- SAS 47:07 · SAC 0:07
- Lead changes
- 1
- Tied
- 1
- Biggest lead
- SAS 37 · SAC 2
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
33–7
13–010–2
14–212–19–0
9–0
The game in chapters · points
The Spurs won the first quarter 42–18 — the widest chapter of the game.
1818 ptsQ14242 pts
1919 ptsQ22929 pts
3535 ptsQ33030 pts
2525 ptsQ42525 pts
SAC left, SAS right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Spurs went on a 33–7 run over 6:28 — a 24-point lead. The longest dry spell: Kings went 3:51 without a point — Q2 11:18 to Q2 7:27 — while Spurs scored 13.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Spurs went on a 33–7 run over 6:28 — a 24-point lead.
Run33–7Kings went 3:09 without a point — Q1 8:10 to Q1 5:01 — while Spurs scored 15.
Lull3:09Spurs went on a 13–0 run over 3:45 — a 35-point lead.
Run13–0Kings went 3:51 without a point — Q2 11:18 to Q2 7:27 — while Spurs scored 13.
Lull3:51
The fives that closed it
SAC−6
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 4:06 — Kings lost that stretch by 6.
SAS+6
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 5:45 — Spurs won that stretch by 6.
Every stint, on and off
SAC closing five · the last 4:06−6
SAS closing five · the last 5:45+6
−16−13−3
−16−13−3
−23−6−17
−13−16+3
−7−22+15
−7−22+15
−16−13−3
−6−23+17
−23−6−17
−6−23+17
−6−23+17
0−29+29
−6−23+17
+23+6+17
+23+6+17
+16+13+3
+16+13+3
+7+22−15
+23+6+17
+7+22−15
+6+23−17
+6+23−17
0+29−29
0+29−29
0+29−29
+6+23−17
+6+23−17
+6+23−17
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Kings 97, Spurs 126, final.