QG
QGBiggest swing · DEN at LAL
Q. Grimes 25' 3PT pullup (9 PTS).
Q4, 9:48.
Nuggets 94, Lakers 91 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 522 readings · Final · October 16, 2026
+18to LAL
FINAL · DEN AT LAL
Nuggets beat the Lakers by 15 — 121–106.
Our win probability · Nuggets came back from a 38% chance at Q1 11:38 · the favourite changed 5 times
Final · October 16, 2026
Top scorers
J. Murray
21pts · 8 of 15
A. Reaves
19pts · 5 of 11
By quarter
15Won by DEN
45:57DEN ledof 48:00
17Largest leadLead changes: 1
FINALOctober 16, 2026
Nuggets won by 15
every action, The river
T. Brazile DUNK — dunk, 9:36 left in the first, put the Nuggets ahead for goodFirst basket: Williams, 11:38 Q1 · last: 0:23 Q4DEN 6, LAL 4
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Nuggets took the edge for good at 2:09 in the second quarter, after the favourite had changed 5 times.
Lakers
FINALNuggets to win100%+34 in the Fourth quarterLakers 0%
Nuggets① 18 points
② 17 points
All 522 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
18points
Biggest swing · Lakers
5
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
522 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
522 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | DENLAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | DEN +14 | DEN +34 pts | |
| Q2 | LAL +7 | LAL +9 pts | |
| Q3 | LAL +2 | LAL +2 pts | |
| Q4 | DEN +10 | DEN +34 pts |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 522 readings the river draws.
Runs · 8
Last playQ4 0:00 · DEN 121–LAL 106 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 118
One pin a scoring play — 118 scoring plays on 101 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
LAL 35 baskets, 106 pts · DEN 46 baskets, 121 pts
every action, Key beats
14 plays moved it 10 points or more — 8 of them in the fourth quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 65About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (17.5). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
8 runs
The Nuggets led for 46 minutes and by as many as 17 — their biggest run was 12–0 in the fourth.
- Time leading
- LAL 0:37 · DEN 45:57
- Lead changes
- 1
- Tied
- 2
- Biggest lead
- LAL 2 · DEN 17
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
13–2
10–212–3
15–7
13–414–2
12–4
12–0
Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Nuggets won the first quarter 36–22 — the widest chapter of the game.
3636 ptsQ12222 pts
2626 ptsQ23333 pts
2626 ptsQ32828 pts
3333 ptsQ42323 pts
DEN left, LAL right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Nuggets went on a 12–0 run over 2:52 — a 16-point lead. The longest dry spell: Nuggets went 3:11 without a point — Q4 6:48 to Q4 3:37 — while Lakers scored 7.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Nuggets went on a 13–2 run over 3:43 — a 14-point lead.
Run13–2Nuggets went on a 10–2 run over 2:28 — a 17-point lead.
Run10–2Lakers went on a 12–3 run over 2:56 — the deficit down to 2.
Run12–3Nuggets went on a 15–7 run over 3:02 — a 10-point lead.
Run15–7
The fives that closed it
DEN+9
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 4:29 — Nuggets won that stretch by 9.
LAL−6
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 5:33 — Lakers lost that stretch by 6.
Every stint, on and off
DEN closing five · the last 4:29+9
LAL closing five · the last 5:33−6
+9+6+3
+9+6+3
+17−2+19
+7+8−1
−4+19−23
+1+14−13
+5+10−5
+6+9−3
+6+9−3
+10+5+5
+9+6+3
−18+3−21
−18+3−21
−4−11+7
−17+2−19
−1−14+13
+5−20+25
−3−12+9
−3−12+9
−2−13+11
+1−16+17
+3−18+21
−6−9+3
−6−9+3
−6−9+3
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Nuggets 121, Lakers 106, final.