Biggest swing · ATL at NYK
V. Krejčí 26' 3PT (5 PTS) (D. Daniels 6 AST).
Q2, 1:53.
Hawks 58, Knicks 45 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 594 readings · Final · January 2, 2026
+9to ATL
FINAL · ATL AT NYK
Hawks beat the Knicks by 12 — 111–99.
Our win probability · Hawks came back from a 25% chance at Q1 10:10 · the favourite changed 5 times
Final · January 2, 2026
Top scorers
N. Alexander-Walker
23pts · 9 of 20
J. Brunson
24pts · 10 of 23
By quarter
12Won by ATL
39:38ATL ledof 48:00
26Largest leadLead changes: 7
ClosedThe game is over, so the channel closed. These are the numbers at the horn.
every action, The river
L. Kennard Free Throw — free throw, 1:02 left in the first, put the Hawks ahead for goodFirst basket: McBride, 11:35 Q1 · last: 0:31 Q4ATL 31, NYK 30
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Hawks won it by 12. The favourite changed 5 times.
100%Hawks
0%Knicks
9 pointsV. Krej
All 594 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
9points
Biggest swing · Hawks
5
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
594 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Runs · 6
Last playQ4 0:00 · ATL 111–NYK 99 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 111
One pin a scoring play — 111 scoring plays on 97 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
NYK 36 baskets, 99 pts · ATL 42 baskets, 111 pts
every action, Key beats
No play moved it 10 points — a game that was never in doubt.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 28Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (1.0). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
6 runs
The Hawks led for 40 minutes and by as many as 26 — their biggest run was 17–5 in the first quarter.
- Time leading
- NYK 6:51 · ATL 39:38
- Lead changes
- 7
- Tied
- 3
- Biggest lead
- NYK 9 · ATL 26
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
8–0
17–5
8–0
9–0
16–6
13–0The game in chapters · points
The Knicks won the fourth quarter 29–17 — the widest chapter of the game.
3333 ptsQ13030 pts
2727 ptsQ21717 pts
3434 ptsQ32323 pts
1717 ptsQ42929 pts
ATL left, NYK right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
overnight, What it came down to
Hawks 111, Knicks 99, final.