Biggest swing · DET at NOP
D. Robinson 26' 3PT pullup (12 PTS) (J. Duren 3 AST).
Q3, 7:01.
Pistons 81, Pelicans 72 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 579 readings · Final · January 21, 2026
+12to DET
FINAL · DET AT NOP
Pistons beat the Pelicans by 8 — 112–104.
Our win probability · Pistons came back from a 44% chance at Q1 12:00 · the favourite changed 1 time
Final · January 21, 2026
Top scorers
J. Duren
20pts · 7 of 11
S. Bey
20pts · 4 of 12
By quarter
8Won by DET
47:44DET ledof 48:00
13Largest leadLead changes: none
ClosedThe game is over, so the channel closed. These are the numbers at the horn.
every action, The river
Pistons led from the first basket to the horn.First basket: Duren, 11:44 Q1 · last: 0:11 Q4Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Pistons won it by 8. The favourite changed once.
100%Pistons
0%Pelicans
12 pointsD. Robinson
All 579 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
12points
Biggest swing · Pistons
1
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
579 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Runs · 4
Last playQ4 0:00 · DET 112–NOP 104 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 119
One pin a scoring play — 119 scoring plays on 99 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
NOP 36 baskets, 104 pts · DET 39 baskets, 112 pts
every action, Key beats
5 plays moved it 10 points or more — 3 of them in the fourth quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 56Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (12.2). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
4 runs
The Pistons led for 48 minutes and by as many as 13 — their biggest run was 13–0 in the first quarter.
- Time leading
- NOP 0:00 · DET 47:44
- Lead changes
- 0
- Tied
- 0
- Biggest lead
- NOP — · DET 13
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
13–0
9–0
11–3
13–5Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Pistons won the first quarter 34–30 — the widest chapter of the game.
3434 ptsQ13030 pts
3434 ptsQ23232 pts
2121 ptsQ32222 pts
2323 ptsQ42020 pts
DET left, NOP right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
overnight, What it came down to
Pistons 112, Pelicans 104, final.