Biggest swing · TOR at SAC
B. Ingram 26' 3PT (17 PTS) (O. Agbaji 1 AST).
Q3, 4:09.
Raptors 81, Kings 77 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 562 readings · Final · January 21, 2026
+16to TOR
FINAL · TOR AT SAC
Raptors beat the Kings by 13 — 122–109.
Our win probability · Raptors came back from a 15% chance at Q2 0:21 · the favourite changed 11 times
Final · January 21, 2026
Top scorers
S. Barnes
23pts · 8 of 17
R. Westbrook
23pts · 9 of 22
By quarter
13Won by TOR
25:27TOR ledof 48:00
19Largest leadLead changes: 5
ClosedThe game is over, so the channel closed. These are the numbers at the horn.
every action, The river
B. Ingram Free Throw — free throw, 5:30 left in the third, put the Raptors ahead for goodFirst basket: LaVine, 11:40 Q1 · last: 0:55 Q4TOR 76, SAC 75
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Raptors won it by 13. The favourite changed 11 times.
100%Raptors
0%Kings
16 pointsB. Ingram
All 562 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
16points
Biggest swing · Raptors
11
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
562 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Runs · 5
Last playQ4 0:00 · TOR 122–SAC 109 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 125
One pin a scoring play — 125 scoring plays on 105 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
SAC 41 baskets, 109 pts · TOR 43 baskets, 122 pts
every action, Key beats
6 plays moved it 10 points or more — 6 of them in the third quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 42Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (15.7). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
5 runs
The Raptors led for 25 minutes and by as many as 19 — their biggest run was 12–0 in the first quarter.
- Time leading
- SAC 20:17 · TOR 25:27
- Lead changes
- 5
- Tied
- 4
- Biggest lead
- SAC 12 · TOR 19
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
12–0
23–6
10–2
12–217–6The game in chapters · points
The Raptors won the third quarter 43–21 — the widest chapter of the game.
2626 ptsQ13030 pts
2626 ptsQ23131 pts
4343 ptsQ32121 pts
2727 ptsQ42727 pts
TOR left, SAC right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
overnight, What it came down to
Raptors 122, Kings 109, final.