Biggest swing · CLE at DEN
J. Harden 24' 3PT step back (22 PTS).
Q4, 0:32.
Cavaliers 117, Nuggets 117 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 578 readings · Final · February 9, 2026
+41to CLE
FINAL · CLE AT DEN
Cavaliers beat the Nuggets by 2 — 119–117.
Our win probability · Cavaliers came back from a 7.1% chance at Q4 7:28 · the favourite changed 9 times
Final · February 9, 2026
Top scorers
D. Mitchell STEAL
32pts · 11 of 23
N. Joki
22pts · 6 of 11
By quarter
2Won by CLE
1:34CLE ledof 48:00
6Largest leadLead changes: 4
ClosedThe game is over, so the channel closed. These are the numbers at the horn.
every action, The river
D. Mitchell Free Throw — free throw, 0:00 left in the fourth, put the Cavaliers ahead for goodFirst basket: Allen, 11:35 Q1 · last: 0:00 Q4CLE 118, DEN 117
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Cavaliers won it by 2. The favourite changed 9 times.
100%Cavaliers
0%Nuggets
41 pointsJ. Harden
All 578 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
41points
Biggest swing · Cavaliers
9
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
578 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Runs · 7
Last playQ4 0:00 · CLE 119–DEN 117 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 127
One pin a scoring play — 127 scoring plays on 106 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
DEN 38 baskets, 117 pts · CLE 43 baskets, 119 pts
every action, Key beats
25 plays moved it 10 points or more — 15 of them in the fourth quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 86Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (40.9). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
7 runs
The Nuggets led for 43 minutes and by as many as 11 — the Cavaliers' 10–0 in the second quarter and a 32–25 fourth took it back.
- Time leading
- DEN 42:38 · CLE 1:34
- Lead changes
- 4
- Tied
- 7
- Biggest lead
- DEN 11 · CLE 6
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
15–2
9–0
10–0
11–3
15–5
8–0
15–6Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Cavaliers won the fourth quarter 32–25 — the widest chapter of the game.
2626 ptsQ13030 pts
2828 ptsQ22929 pts
3333 ptsQ33333 pts
3232 ptsQ42525 pts
CLE left, DEN right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
overnight, What it came down to
Cavaliers 119, Nuggets 117, final.