Biggest swing · HOU at ORL
A. Sengun cutting Layup (14 PTS) (K. Durant 3 AST).
Q4, 3:07.
Rockets 101, Magic 100 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 533 readings · Final · February 26, 2026
+26to HOU
FINAL · HOU AT ORL
Rockets beat the Magic by 5 — 113–108.
Our win probability · Rockets came back from a 4.3% chance at Q3 5:04 · the favourite changed 33 times
Final · February 26, 2026
Top scorers
K. Durant STEAL
40pts · 14 of 28
D. Bane REBOUND
30pts · 12 of 19
By quarter
5Won by HOU
11:33HOU ledof 48:00
7Largest leadLead changes: 12
ClosedThe game is over, so the channel closed. These are the numbers at the horn.
every action, The river
A. Sengun — 2-foot cutting layup, 3:07 left in the fourth, put the Rockets ahead for goodFirst basket: Sengun, 11:00 Q1 · last: 0:04 Q4HOU 101, ORL 100
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Rockets won it by 5. The favourite changed 33 times.
100%Rockets
0%Magic
26 pointsA. Sengun
All 533 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
26points
Biggest swing · Rockets
33
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
533 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Runs · 5
Last playQ4 0:00 · HOU 113–ORL 108 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 112
One pin a scoring play — 112 scoring plays on 100 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
ORL 40 baskets, 108 pts · HOU 43 baskets, 113 pts
every action, Key beats
20 plays moved it 10 points or more — 17 of them in the fourth quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 86Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (26.3). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
5 runs
The Magic led for 31 minutes and by as many as 19 — the Rockets' 21–0 in the third quarter and a 32–28 fourth took it back.
- Time leading
- ORL 30:41 · HOU 11:33
- Lead changes
- 12
- Tied
- 8
- Biggest lead
- ORL 19 · HOU 7
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
15–7
10–211–2
21–010–2Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Rockets won the third quarter 38–27 — the widest chapter of the game.
2222 ptsQ12929 pts
2121 ptsQ22424 pts
3838 ptsQ32727 pts
3232 ptsQ42828 pts
HOU left, ORL right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
overnight, What it came down to
Rockets 113, Magic 108, final.