Biggest swing · GSW at OKC
S. Gilgeous-Alexander 25' 3PT step back (25 PTS).
Q4, 0:42.
Thunder 102, Warriors 97 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 573 readings · Final · March 7, 2026
+15to OKC
FINAL · GSW AT OKC
Thunder beat the Warriors by 7 — 104–97.
Our win probability · Thunder never fell below 52%
Final · March 7, 2026
Top scorers
G. Santos REBOUND
22pts · 8 of 19
S. Gilgeous-Alexander
27pts · 6 of 15
By quarter
7Won by OKC
46:28OKC ledof 48:00
14Largest leadLead changes: none
ClosedThe game is over, so the channel closed. These are the numbers at the horn.
every action, The river
S. Gilgeous-Alexander Free Throw — free throw, 3:52 left in the third, put the Thunder ahead for goodFirst basket: Wallace, 11:38 Q1 · last: 0:27 Q4OKC 78, GSW 77
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Thunder won it by 7. The favourite never changed.
100%Thunder
0%Warriors
15 pointsS. Gilgeous-Alexander
All 573 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
15points
Biggest swing · Thunder
0
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
573 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Runs · 3
Last playQ4 0:00 · GSW 97–OKC 104 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 103
One pin a scoring play — 103 scoring plays on 86 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
OKC 33 baskets, 104 pts · GSW 36 baskets, 97 pts
every action, Key beats
13 plays moved it 10 points or more — 10 of them in the fourth quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 70Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (15.3). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
3 runs
The Thunder led for 46 minutes and by as many as 14 — their biggest run was 13–5 in the first quarter.
- Time leading
- OKC 46:28 · GSW 0:00
- Lead changes
- 0
- Tied
- 2
- Biggest lead
- OKC 14 · GSW —
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
13–5
10–2
10–2Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Warriors won the third quarter 29–19 — the widest chapter of the game.
2828 ptsQ13434 pts
2626 ptsQ23333 pts
2929 ptsQ31919 pts
1414 ptsQ41818 pts
GSW left, OKC right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
overnight, What it came down to
Warriors 97, Thunder 104, final.