Biggest swing · MIL at MIA
P. Larsson driving Layup (25 PTS).
Q4, 2:16.
Heat 105, Bucks 101 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 540 readings · Final · March 12, 2026
+21to MIA
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polling · 30 min tick · no answer yet · 1 final
Latest play: Game End. Every play as it lands, pushed on the live channel — the ribbon under the score says which transport is carrying this page.
Tonight’s room
Opening this game — the score, the clock and the win probability land together.
FINAL · MIL AT MIA
Our win probability · Heat never fell below 53%
Final · March 12, 2026
Top scorers

G. Antetokounmpo
31pts · 12 of 24

P. Larsson
28pts · 9 of 14
By quarter
Our reading, one per play
Heat won it by 7. The favourite never changed.
21points
Biggest swing · Heat
0
Times the favourite changed
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
540 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Runs · 6
Last playQ4 0:00 · MIL 105–MIA 112 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 115
One pin a scoring play — 115 scoring plays on 99 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
MIA 38 baskets, 112 pts · MIL 41 baskets, 105 pts
6 plays moved it 10 points or more — 4 of them in the fourth quarter.
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (21.3). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
Runs · the game’s tide
6 runs
The Heat led for 48 minutes and by as many as 15 — their biggest run was 15–1 in the third quarter.
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
The game in chapters · points
The Heat won the first quarter 31–21 — the widest chapter of the game.
MIL left, MIA right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
Reading the outside line.
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
Bucks 105, Heat 112, final.