Biggest swing · ORL at CLE
J. Harden 25' 3PT pullup (25 PTS).
Q3, 3:40.
Cavaliers 96, Magic 91 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 537 readings · Final · March 24, 2026
+14to CLE
FINAL · ORL AT CLE
Cavaliers beat the Magic by 5 — 136–131.
Our win probability · Cavaliers came back from a 37% chance at Q2 11:18 · the favourite changed 32 times
Final · March 24, 2026
Top scorers
P. Banchero
36pts · 10 of 19
D. Mitchell
42pts · 14 of 22
By quarter
5Won by CLE
31:31CLE ledof 48:00
11Largest leadLead changes: 3
ClosedThe game is over, so the channel closed. These are the numbers at the horn.
every action, The river
J. Harden — 25-foot step back 3, 0:00 left in the second, put the Cavaliers ahead for goodFirst basket: Bane, 11:46 Q1 · last: 0:00 Q4CLE 71, ORL 68
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Cavaliers won it by 5. The favourite changed 32 times.
100%Cavaliers
0%Magic
14 pointsJ. Harden
All 537 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
14points
Biggest swing · Cavaliers
32
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
537 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Runs · 4
Last playQ4 0:00 · ORL 131–CLE 136 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 151
One pin a scoring play — 151 scoring plays on 121 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
CLE 49 baskets, 136 pts · ORL 41 baskets, 131 pts
every action, Key beats
16 plays moved it 10 points or more — 6 of them in the third quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 75Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (14.4). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
4 runs
The Cavaliers led for 32 minutes and by as many as 11 — their biggest run was 12–2 in the third quarter.
- Time leading
- CLE 31:31 · ORL 14:49
- Lead changes
- 3
- Tied
- 6
- Biggest lead
- CLE 11 · ORL 7
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
14–5
12–2
12–412–4Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Cavaliers won the second quarter 40–29 — the widest chapter of the game.
3939 ptsQ13232 pts
2929 ptsQ24040 pts
2929 ptsQ33333 pts
3434 ptsQ43131 pts
ORL left, CLE right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
overnight, What it came down to
Magic 131, Cavaliers 136, final.