Biggest swing · SAC at TOR
D. DeRozan driving reverse Layup (25 PTS).
Q4, 1:27.
Kings 118, Raptors 114 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 577 readings · Final · April 1, 2026
+26to SAC
FINAL · SAC AT TOR
Kings beat the Raptors by 8 — 123–115.
Our win probability · Kings came back from a 24% chance at Q2 6:26 · the favourite changed 11 times
Final · April 1, 2026
Top scorers
P. Achiuwa
28pts · 12 of 19
R. Barrett
20pts · 8 of 19
By quarter
8Won by SAC
36:38SAC ledof 48:00
12Largest leadLead changes: 9
ClosedThe game is over, so the channel closed. These are the numbers at the horn.
every action, The river
D. Carter — running finger roll layup, 3:27 left in the second, put the Kings ahead for goodFirst basket: Poeltl, 11:16 Q1 · last: 0:34 Q4SAC 52, TOR 50
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Kings won it by 8. The favourite changed 11 times.
100%Kings
0%Raptors
26 pointsD. DeRozan
All 577 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
26points
Biggest swing · Kings
11
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
577 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Runs · 5
Last playQ4 0:00 · SAC 123–TOR 115 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 133
One pin a scoring play — 133 scoring plays on 111 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
TOR 42 baskets, 115 pts · SAC 42 baskets, 123 pts
every action, Key beats
16 plays moved it 10 points or more — 11 of them in the fourth quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 84Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (25.6). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
5 runs
The Kings led for 37 minutes and by as many as 12 — their biggest run was 20–5 in the second quarter.
- Time leading
- TOR 9:11 · SAC 36:38
- Lead changes
- 9
- Tied
- 6
- Biggest lead
- TOR 8 · SAC 12
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
10–0
23–5
20–5
12–4
9–0Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Kings won the first quarter 27–22 — the widest chapter of the game.
2727 ptsQ12222 pts
3434 ptsQ23434 pts
2929 ptsQ32525 pts
3333 ptsQ43434 pts
SAC left, TOR right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
overnight, What it came down to
Kings 123, Raptors 115, final.