Biggest swing · DAL at UTA
K. Filipowski cutting Layup (22 PTS) (I. Collier 8 AST).
Q4, 1:09.
Mavericks 124, Jazz 124 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 689 readings · Final · OT · December 15, 2025
+26to UTA
FINAL · DAL AT UTA
Jazz beat the Mavericks by 7 — 140–133.
Our win probability · Jazz came back from a 6.0% chance at Q4 3:30 · the favourite changed 38 times
Final · OT · December 15, 2025
Top scorers
C. Flagg
42pts · 13 of 27
K. George
37pts · 11 of 20
By quarter
7Won by UTA
15:13UTA ledof 53:00
10Largest leadLead changes: 12
ClosedThe game is over, so the channel closed. These are the numbers at the horn.
every action, The river
K. George Free Throw — free throw, 4:45 left in overtime, put the Jazz ahead for goodFirst basket: Bailey, 11:40 Q1 · last: 0:31 OTUTA 130, DAL 129
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Jazz won it by 7. The favourite changed 38 times.
100%Jazz
0%Mavericks
26 pointsK. Filipowski
All 689 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
26points
Biggest swing · Jazz
38
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
689 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Runs · 7
Last playOT 0:00 · DAL 133–UTA 140 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 153
One pin a scoring play — 153 scoring plays on 127 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
UTA 50 baskets, 140 pts · DAL 48 baskets, 133 pts
every action, Key beats
33 plays moved it 10 points or more — 24 of them in the fourth quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 128Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (25.8). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
7 runs
The Mavericks led for 34 minutes and by as many as 10 — the Jazz' 18–5 in the overtime and a 11–4 overtime took it back.
- Time leading
- UTA 15:13 · DAL 33:31
- Lead changes
- 12
- Tied
- 13
- Biggest lead
- UTA 10 · DAL 10
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
14–4
19–5
10–1
14–2
13–4
8–018–5Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Jazz won the fourth quarter 37–30 — the widest chapter of the game.
4343 ptsQ13737 pts
3232 ptsQ23434 pts
2424 ptsQ32121 pts
3030 ptsQ43737 pts
44 ptsOT1111 pts
DAL left, UTA right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
overnight, What it came down to
Mavericks 133, Jazz 140, final.