Biggest swing · ATL at ORL
N. Alexander-Walker 26' 3PT step back (28 PTS) (J. Johnson 5 AST).
Q4, 1:27.
Hawks 125, Magic 121 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 629 readings · Final · October 21, 2026
+37to ATL
FINAL · ATL AT ORL
Hawks beat the Magic by 7 — 132–125.
Our win probability · Hawks came back from a 19% chance at Q4 10:10 · the favourite changed 33 times
Final · October 21, 2026
Top scorers
N. Alexander-Walker
31pts · 8 of 15
P. Banchero
35pts · 10 of 12
By quarter
7Won by ATL
27:27ATL ledof 48:00
14Largest leadLead changes: 22
FINALOctober 21, 2026
Hawks won by 7
every action, The river
N. Alexander-Walker — driving layup, 5:00 left in the fourth, put the Hawks ahead for goodFirst basket: Johnson, 11:41 Q1 · last: 0:20 Q4ATL 118, ORL 117
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Hawks took the edge for good at 5:00 in the fourth quarter, after the favourite had changed 33 times.
Magic
FINALHawks to win100%+55 in the Fourth quarterMagic 0%
Hawks① 37 points
② 30 points
All 629 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
37points
Biggest swing · Hawks
33
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
629 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
629 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | ATLORL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | ORL +5 | ORL +12 pts | |
| Q2 | ATL +15 | ATL +44 pts | |
| Q3 | ORL +11 | ORL +31 pts | |
| Q4 | ATL +8 | ATL +55 pts |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 629 readings the river draws.
Runs · 3
Last playQ4 0:00 · ATL 132–ORL 125 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 145
One pin a scoring play — 145 scoring plays on 117 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
ORL 41 baskets, 125 pts · ATL 44 baskets, 132 pts
every action, Key beats
27 plays moved it 10 points or more — 20 of them in the fourth quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 111About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (36.7). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
3 runs
The Hawks led for 27 minutes and by as many as 14 — their biggest run was 12–0 in the second quarter.
- Time leading
- ORL 18:04 · ATL 27:27
- Lead changes
- 22
- Tied
- 9
- Biggest lead
- ORL 10 · ATL 14
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
12–0
13–4
21–6
Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Hawks won the second quarter 44–29 — the widest chapter of the game.
2828 ptsQ13333 pts
4444 ptsQ22929 pts
2727 ptsQ33838 pts
3333 ptsQ42525 pts
ATL left, ORL right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Magic went on a 21–6 run over 5:30 — a 3-point lead. The longest dry spell: Hawks went 3:05 without a point — Q3 6:20 to Q3 3:15 — while Magic scored 11.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Magic went on a 11–3 run over 2:49 — a 7-point lead.
Run11–3Hawks went on a 12–0 run over 2:29 — a 10-point lead.
Run12–0Hawks went on a 13–4 run over 2:04 — a 13-point lead.
Run13–4Magic went on a 21–6 run over 5:30 — a 3-point lead.
Run21–6
The fives that closed it
ATL+1
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 0:30 — Hawks won that stretch by 1.
ORL−4
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 4:27 — Magic lost that stretch by 4.
Every stint, on and off
ATL closing five · the last 0:30+1
ORL closing five · the last 4:27−4
+11−4+15
+4+3+1
+8−1+9
+70+7
−2+9−11
+9−2+11
+1+6−5
−2+9−11
−1+8−9
−11+4−15
−70−7
−8+1−9
−11+4−15
0−7+7
−1−6+5
+3−10+13
−4−3−1
+10−17+27
−6−1−5
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Hawks 132, Magic 125, final.