RO
ROBiggest swing · CHA at BKN
R. O'Neale 25' 3PT (8 PTS) (M. Diabaté 2 AST).
Q4, 11:16.
Hornets 89, Nets 84 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 590 readings · Final · October 21, 2026
+18to CHA
FINAL · CHA AT BKN
Hornets beat the Nets by 7 — 110–103.
Our win probability · Hornets came back from a 29% chance at Q1 9:37 · the favourite changed 23 times
Final · October 21, 2026
Top scorers
SUB
21pts · 6 of 9
J. Randle
33pts · 11 of 18
By quarter
7Won by CHA
39:05CHA ledof 48:00
10Largest leadLead changes: 7
FINALOctober 21, 2026
Hornets won by 7
every action, The river
G. Allen — 24-foot 3, 4:01 left in the third, put the Hornets ahead for goodFirst basket: Randle, 11:41 Q1 · last: 0:20 Q4CHA 75, BKN 72
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Hornets took the edge for good at 4:01 in the third quarter, after the favourite had changed 23 times.
Nets
FINALHornets to win100%+29 in the Fourth quarterNets 0%
Hornets① 18 points
② 14 points
All 590 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
18points
Biggest swing · Hornets
23
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
590 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
590 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | CHABKN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | CHA +4 | CHA +12 pts | |
| Q2 | CHA +2 | CHA +6 pts | |
| Q3 | BKN +1 | CHA +8 pts | |
| Q4 | CHA +2 | CHA +29 pts |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 590 readings the river draws.
Runs · 3
Last playQ4 0:00 · CHA 110–BKN 103 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 109
One pin a scoring play — 109 scoring plays on 93 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
BKN 36 baskets, 103 pts · CHA 41 baskets, 110 pts
every action, Key beats
19 plays moved it 10 points or more — 11 of them in the third quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 60About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (18.1). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
3 runs
The Hornets led for 39 minutes and by as many as 10 — their biggest run was 14–3 in the first quarter.
- Time leading
- BKN 7:51 · CHA 39:05
- Lead changes
- 7
- Tied
- 5
- Biggest lead
- BKN 7 · CHA 10
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
14–3
12–0
11–2The game in chapters · points
The Hornets won the first quarter 27–23 — the widest chapter of the game.
2727 ptsQ12323 pts
2727 ptsQ22525 pts
3232 ptsQ33333 pts
2424 ptsQ42222 pts
CHA left, BKN right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Nets went on a 12–0 run over 1:58 — a 2-point lead. The longest dry spell: Nets went 3:10 without a point — Q1 9:14 to Q1 6:04 — while Hornets scored 4.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Nets went 3:10 without a point — Q1 9:14 to Q1 6:04 — while Hornets scored 4.
Lull3:10Hornets went on a 14–3 run over 3:34 — a 8-point lead.
Run14–3Nets went on a 12–0 run over 1:58 — a 2-point lead.
Run12–0Hornets went 3:07 without a point — Q3 10:10 to Q3 7:03 — while Nets scored 12.
Lull3:07
The fives that closed it
CHA+1
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 0:23 — Hornets won that stretch by 1.
BKN+3
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 3:44 — Nets won that stretch by 3.
Every stint, on and off
CHA closing five · the last 0:23+1
BKN closing five · the last 3:44+3
−2+9−11
+2+5−3
−13+20−33
0+7−7
+18−11+29
−5+12−17
+13−6+19
+19−12+31
+5+2+3
−2+9−11
0−7+7
−1−6+5
+3−10+13
+7−14+21
+2−9+11
−4−3−1
−8+1−9
−15+8−23
−11+4−15
−8+1−9
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Hornets 110, Nets 103, final.