Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors

FINAL · CHI AT TOR

Raptors beat the Bulls by 43 — 135–92.

Our win probability · Raptors never fell below 56%

Final · October 21, 2026

Top scorers

M. Buzelis REBOUND

17pts · 2 of 8

S. Barnes

23pts · 8 of 19

By quarter

Club	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
CHI	23	21	27	21
TOR	43	26	34	32

43Won by TOR

47:47TOR ledof 48:00

48Largest leadLead changes: none

← Tonight’s games

FINALOctober 21, 2026

Raptors won by 43

every action, The river

Raptors led from the first basket to the horn.First basket: Barrett, 11:47 Q1 · last: 0:44 Q4

Win probability

Our reading, one per play

Raptors held the edge from the first reading to the horn — the favourite never changed.

Raptors

Raptors to win100%Bulls 0%

Bulls

FINAL

① 6 pointsJ. Smith

② 6 points

All 723 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.

6points

Biggest swing · Bulls

Times the favourite changed

Where this number comes from

Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.

723 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.

Quarter flow

723 readings

Quarter	Score	Win chance
Q1	TOR +20	TOR +33 pts
Q2	TOR +5	TOR +7 pts
Q3	TOR +7	TOR +4 pts
Q4	TOR +11	Flat

Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it

About the quarter flow

Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 723 readings the river draws.

Runs · 4

Last playQ4 0:00 · CHI 92–TOR 135 · End, game · held

Scoring plays · 142

One pin a scoring play — 142 scoring plays on 111 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.

TOR 44 baskets, 135 pts · CHI 27 baskets, 92 pts

every action, Key beats

No play moved it 10 points — a game that was never in doubt.

How much a play had to move it

Every 5-point move shows 9

About these bars

Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (1.0). A tap puts the river’s head on it.

every possession, Runs and the clutch

Runs · the game’s tide

4 runs

The Raptors led for 48 minutes and by as many as 48 — their biggest run was 26–8 in the second quarter.

Time leading: TOR 47:47 · CHI 0:00
Lead changes: 0
Tied: 0
Biggest lead: TOR 48 · CHI —
Pace: —

— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.

26–8

13–2

18–8

17–4

The game in chapters · points

The Raptors won the first quarter 43–23 — the widest chapter of the game.

2323 ptsQ14343 pts

2121 ptsQ22626 pts

2727 ptsQ33434 pts

2121 ptsQ43232 pts

CHI left, TOR right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.

↗

every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor

Raptors went on a 26–8 run over 4:58 — a 29-point lead. The longest dry spell: Bulls went 3:01 without a point — Q2 5:45 to Q2 2:44 — while Raptors scored 4.

Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock

Raptors went on a 26–8 run over 4:58 — a 29-point lead.
Run26–8
Bulls went on a 13–2 run over 3:07 — the deficit down to 18.
Run13–2
Bulls went 3:01 without a point — Q2 5:45 to Q2 2:44 — while Raptors scored 4.
Lull3:01
Raptors went on a 18–8 run over 4:50 — a 39-point lead.
Run18–8

The fives that closed it

CHI+1

A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file

Closed the game together from Q4 4:18 — Bulls won that stretch by 1.

TOR+1

A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file

Closed the game together from Q4 4:59 — Raptors won that stretch by 1.

Every stint, on and off

CHI closing five · the last 4:18+1

TOR closing five · the last 4:59+1

−35−8−27

−24−19−5

−21−22+1

−27−16−11

−22−21−1

−15−28+13

−18−25+7

−7−36+29

−13−30+17

−11−32+21

−4−39+35

+37+6+31

+32+11+21

+24+19+5

+14+29−15

+21+22−1

+14+29−15

+29+14+15

+10+33−23

+8+35−27

+21+22−1

+2+41−39

+1+42−41

Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.

every action, Two models

Reading the outside line.

every possession, Projection

The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.

every action, Against his band

Reading tonight’s bands.

Raptors beat the Bulls by 43 — 135–92.

J. Smith cutting DUNK (6 PTS) (J. Giddey 1 AST).

every action, The river

Win probability

every action, Key beats

every possession, Runs and the clutch

every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor

every action, Two models

every possession, Projection

every action, Against his band

overnight, What it came down to