Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies

FINAL · UTA AT MEM

Grizzlies beat the Jazz by 20 — 123–103.

Our win probability · Grizzlies came back from a 33% chance at Q1 0:43 · the favourite changed 16 times

Final · October 21, 2026

Top scorers

K. George Free Throw

22pts · 7 of 12

T. Jerome

45pts · 17 of 25

By quarter

Club	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
UTA	31	20	28	24
MEM	29	35	34	25

20Won by MEM

38:03MEM ledof 48:00

27Largest leadLead changes: 4

← Tonight’s games

FINALOctober 21, 2026

Grizzlies won by 20

every action, The river

C. Boozer Free Throw — free throw, 11:09 left in the second, put the Grizzlies ahead for goodFirst basket: Jerome, 11:49 Q1 · last: 0:16 Q4MEM 32, UTA 31

Win probability

Our reading, one per play

Grizzlies took the edge for good at 11:38 in the second quarter, after the favourite had changed 16 times.

Grizzlies

Grizzlies to win100%+3 in the Fourth quarterJazz 0%

Jazz

FINAL

① 10 pointsC. Coward

② 10 points

All 635 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.

10points

Biggest swing · Grizzlies

Times the favourite changed

Where this number comes from

Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.

635 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.

Quarter flow

635 readings

Quarter	Score	Win chance
Q1	UTA +2	UTA +7 pts
Q2	MEM +15	MEM +38 pts
Q3	MEM +6	MEM +10 pts
Q4	MEM +1	MEM +3 pts

Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it

About the quarter flow

Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 635 readings the river draws.

Runs · 5

Last playQ4 0:00 · UTA 103–MEM 123 · End, game · held

Scoring plays · 123

One pin a scoring play — 123 scoring plays on 104 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.

MEM 44 baskets, 123 pts · UTA 35 baskets, 103 pts

every action, Key beats

No play moved it 10 points — a game that was never in doubt.

How much a play had to move it

Every 5-point move shows 23

About these bars

Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (1.0). A tap puts the river’s head on it.

every possession, Runs and the clutch

Runs · the game’s tide

5 runs

The Grizzlies led for 38 minutes and by as many as 27 — their biggest run was 22–5 in the second quarter.

Time leading: MEM 38:03 · UTA 8:56
Lead changes: 4
Tied: 6
Biggest lead: MEM 27 · UTA 9
Pace: —

— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.

11–3

14–5

22–5

16–5

16–7

The game in chapters · points

The Grizzlies won the second quarter 35–20 — the widest chapter of the game.

3131 ptsQ12929 pts

2020 ptsQ23535 pts

2828 ptsQ33434 pts

2424 ptsQ42525 pts

UTA left, MEM right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.

↗

every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor

Grizzlies went on a 22–5 run over 4:26 — a 8-point lead. The longest dry spell: Jazz went 3:45 without a point — Q3 9:07 to Q3 5:22 — while Grizzlies scored 11.

Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock

Jazz went on a 11–3 run over 2:50 — a 4-point lead.
Run11–3
Grizzlies went on a 22–5 run over 4:26 — a 8-point lead.
Run22–5
Grizzlies went on a 16–5 run over 4:25 — a 27-point lead.
Run16–5
Jazz went 3:45 without a point — Q3 9:07 to Q3 5:22 — while Grizzlies scored 11.
Lull3:45

The fives that closed it

UTA−1

A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file

Closed the game together from Q4 1:32 — Jazz lost that stretch by 1.

MEM+1

A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file

Closed the game together from Q4 1:32 — Grizzlies won that stretch by 1.

Every stint, on and off

UTA closing five · the last 1:32−1

MEM closing five · the last 1:32+1

−2−18+16

−16−4−12

−10−100

−16−4−12

−27+7−34

−5−15+10

−2−18+16

−8−12+4

−10−100

−1−19+18

−3−17+14

+31−11+42

+200+20

+21−1+22

+24−4+28

0+20−20

+19+1+18

−1+21−22

−7+27−34

0+20−20

Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.

every action, Two models

Reading the outside line.

every possession, Projection

The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.

every action, Against his band

Reading tonight’s bands.

Grizzlies beat the Jazz by 20 — 123–103.

C. Coward 24' 3PT (5 PTS) (T. Jerome 3 AST).

every action, The river

Win probability

every action, Key beats

every possession, Runs and the clutch

every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor

every action, Two models

every possession, Projection

every action, Against his band

overnight, What it came down to