TH
THBiggest swing · IND at NOP
T. Haliburton 11' driving floating Jump Shot (22 PTS).
Q4, 1:23.
Pacers 120, Pelicans 118 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 607 readings · Final · October 21, 2026
+35to IND
FINAL · IND AT NOP
Pacers beat the Pelicans by 3 — 123–120.
Our win probability · Pacers came back from a 12% chance at Q4 10:46 · the favourite changed 21 times
Final · October 21, 2026
Top scorers
P. Siakam
30pts · 13 of 23
D. Murray
23pts · 9 of 18
By quarter
3Won by IND
16:06IND ledof 48:00
9Largest leadLead changes: 13
FINALOctober 21, 2026
Pacers won by 3
every action, The river
T. Haliburton — 11-foot driving floating jump shot, 1:23 left in the fourth, put the Pacers ahead for goodFirst basket: Missi, 11:25 Q1 · last: 0:45 Q4IND 120, NOP 118
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Pacers took the edge for good at 1:23 in the fourth quarter, after the favourite had changed 21 times.
Pelicans
FINALPacers to win100%+76 in the Fourth quarterPelicans 0%
Pacers① 31 points
② 35 points
All 607 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
35points
Biggest swing · Pacers
21
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
607 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
607 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | INDNOP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | IND +7 | IND +17 pts | |
| Q2 | NOP +17 | NOP +40 pts | |
| Q3 | IND +4 | IND +4 pts | |
| Q4 | IND +9 | IND +76 pts |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 607 readings the river draws.
Runs · 5
Last playQ4 0:00 · IND 123–NOP 120 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 139
One pin a scoring play — 139 scoring plays on 111 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
NOP 38 baskets, 120 pts · IND 47 baskets, 123 pts
every action, Key beats
21 plays moved it 10 points or more — 20 of them in the fourth quarter.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 112About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (35.1). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
5 runs
The Pelicans led for 29 minutes and by as many as 10 — the Pacers' 15–3 in the fourth and a 37–28 fourth took it back.
- Time leading
- NOP 28:43 · IND 16:06
- Lead changes
- 13
- Tied
- 11
- Biggest lead
- NOP 10 · IND 9
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
10–0
12–010–219–8
15–3Clutch · last 5:00, within 5The game in chapters · points
The Pelicans won the second quarter 35–18 — the widest chapter of the game.
3838 ptsQ13131 pts
1818 ptsQ23535 pts
3030 ptsQ32626 pts
3737 ptsQ42828 pts
IND left, NOP right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Pacers went on a 15–3 run over 3:28 — a 4-point lead. The longest dry spell: Pacers went 4:47 without a point — Q1 0:16 to Q2 7:29 — while Pelicans scored 12.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Pacers went on a 10–0 run over 2:08 — a 9-point lead.
Run10–0Pelicans went on a 12–0 run over 4:04 — a 5-point lead.
Run12–0Pacers went 4:47 without a point — Q1 0:16 to Q2 7:29 — while Pelicans scored 12.
Lull4:47Pacers went on a 10–2 run over 2:45 — a 3-point lead.
Run10–2
The fives that closed it
INDlevel
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 0:14 — Pacers level.
NOP−11
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 7:08 — Pelicans lost that stretch by 11.
Every stint, on and off
IND closing five · the last 0:140
NOP closing five · the last 7:08−11
+30+3
+14−11+25
+11−8+19
−12+15−27
+9−6+15
+2+1+1
−5+8−13
+30+3
0+3−3
−10+13−23
−6+3−9
−5+2−7
−15+12−27
−14+11−25
+7−10+17
−18+15−33
+11−14+25
+1−4+5
+12−15+27
+12−15+27
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Pacers 123, Pelicans 120, final.