KD
KDBiggest swing · SAC at LAC
K. Dunn 25' 3PT (3 PTS) (D. Jones Jr. 2 AST).
Q1, 11:00.
Clippers 6, Kings 3 · Final
11 beats before it
Our win probability · 586 readings · Final · October 21, 2026
+8to LAC
FINAL · SAC AT LAC
Clippers beat the Kings by 25 — 121–96.
Our win probability · Clippers never fell below 55%
Final · October 21, 2026
Top scorers
Z. LaVine
28pts · 10 of 19
D. Garland
30pts · 11 of 19
By quarter
25Won by LAC
47:16LAC ledof 48:00
28Largest leadLead changes: none
FINALOctober 21, 2026
Clippers won by 25
every action, The river
K. Dunn — 25-foot 3, 11:00 left in the first, put the Clippers ahead for goodFirst basket: Garland, 11:31 Q1 · last: 0:34 Q4LAC 6, SAC 3
Win probability
Our reading, one per play
Clippers held the edge from the first reading to the horn — the favourite never changed.
Clippers
FINALClippers to win100%+1 in the Fourth quarterKings 0%
Kings① 9 points
② 8 points
All 586 beats carried a stated probability; none were dropped.
9points
Biggest swing · Clippers
0
Times the favourite changed
Where this number comes from
Even money is the hairline. This reading is ours, and it looks at three things: the margin, the clock, and who has the ball. It does not know who is playing, who is hurt or how good either side is, which is why it starts at the tip and why it can disagree with a number that does. The ball is carried forward from the plays that state a change of possession; every other play holds the last known value.
586 readings, one a play from the tip to the horn.
Quarter flow
586 readings
| Quarter | Score | Win chance | SACLAC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | LAC +12 | LAC +23 pts | |
| Q2 | SAC +5 | SAC +4 pts | |
| Q3 | LAC +16 | LAC +23 pts | |
| Q4 | LAC +2 | LAC +1 pts |
Bar = the quarter’s margin, toward the club that won it
About the quarter flow
Each bar is one quarter’s margin, drawn toward the club that won it; Win chance is how many points of win chance our reading moved toward that crest across the quarter (the first from the tip), read off the 586 readings the river draws.
Runs · 8
Last playQ4 0:00 · SAC 96–LAC 121 · End, game · held
Scoring plays · 116
One pin a scoring play — 116 scoring plays on 99 scoring trips as the game clock groups them, because a basket and the free throw it earned are two plays and one trip. The game's own trip record is not on this read, so the trip number is the clock's grouping and can run high.
LAC 43 baskets, 121 pts · SAC 36 baskets, 96 pts
every action, Key beats
No play moved it 10 points — a game that was never in doubt.
How much a play had to move it
Every 5-point move shows 21About these bars
Our win probability, in points: each bar points toward the club the play helped and runs as long as the play moved it against the game’s largest move (1.0). A tap puts the river’s head on it.
every possession, Runs and the clutch
Runs · the game’s tide
8 runs
The Clippers led for 47 minutes and by as many as 28 — their biggest run was 12–2 in the third quarter.
- Time leading
- LAC 47:16 · SAC 0:00
- Lead changes
- 0
- Tied
- 1
- Biggest lead
- LAC 28 · SAC —
- Pace
- —
— The trips were not read for this game, so there is no pace to state.
14–511–3
14–3
12–2
8–0
10–2
13–2
11–1
The game in chapters · points
The Clippers won the third quarter 32–16 — the widest chapter of the game.
2929 ptsQ14141 pts
2525 ptsQ22020 pts
1616 ptsQ33232 pts
2626 ptsQ42828 pts
SAC left, LAC right — the trips were not read, so the points stand without a rate.
every action, The flow — runs, lulls and the floor
Kings went on a 13–2 run over 3:05 — the deficit down to 17. The longest dry spell: Clippers went 3:07 without a point — Q4 6:18 to Q4 3:11 — while Kings scored 10.
Lulls — three game minutes or more without a point, on the band’s clock
Clippers went on a 14–5 run over 2:50 — a 9-point lead.
Run14–5Clippers went on a 11–3 run over 2:15 — a 18-point lead.
Run11–3Kings went on a 14–3 run over 4:21 — the deficit down to 7.
Run14–3Clippers went on a 12–2 run over 3:16 — a 15-point lead.
Run12–2
The fives that closed it
SAC−4
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 5:15 — Kings lost that stretch by 4.
LAC+2
A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file · A player not named on file
Closed the game together from Q4 1:58 — Clippers won that stretch by 2.
Every stint, on and off
SAC closing five · the last 5:15−4
LAC closing five · the last 1:58+2
−250−25
−17−8−9
−7−18+11
−4−21+17
−4−21+17
−24−1−23
−18−7−11
−5−20+15
−9−16+7
−8−17+9
−4−21+17
+14+11+3
+12+13−1
+16+9+7
+19+6+13
+13+12+1
+17+8+9
+4+21−17
+16+9+7
+5+20−15
+3+22−19
+2+23−21
+2+23−21
+2+23−21
Each stint is painted by the score while he was on: emerald won those minutes, red lost them. On is the club’s margin while he was on the floor in this window; off is its margin while he sat; the last column is the gap between them. The underline marks the widest gap of ten points or more by a player on for at least half the window.
every action, Two models
Reading the outside line.
every possession, Projection
The live projection retired at the horn, and no pregame projection is kept for a game. Reading the league's zone rates to price the shots.
every action, Against his band
Reading tonight’s bands.
overnight, What it came down to
Kings 96, Clippers 121, final.