The first round of a Fantasy Football draft is always going to be the most important pick to nail. It’s hard to mess this pick up, but knowing the particular risks that each player carries heading into the 2026 season could make or break your year.
In this article, I’ll be breaking down my top 15 overall players and how high/low I am on them relative to their ADP.
I’ll be breaking down each pick into tiers:
Tier 1 - Historical Season upside
The best of the best at their position with the potential to produce historic numbers.
Tier 2 - OPOY candidates
The best of the best with some concerns
Tier 3 - Elite
Great players with some concerns
Tier 4 - Strong picks
Good-Great players with concerns and/or limited upside
• * Rankings are for 12 team ppr redraft leagues
Tier 1 - Historical Season Upside
1. Jahmyr Gibbs
Gibbs is my 1.01 this year and also my pick to win Offensive Player of the Year. He is neck & neck with Bijan for me, but with Gibbs there are zero questions about the Lions offense. Along with being in a great situation, the Lions face the easiest schedule in terms of projected win totals this year. Gibbs has already posted back to back 360+ fantasy points seasons and his workload will likely only increase now with David Montgomery gone.
In the words of Dan Campbell “we’ve only scratched the surface”
2. Bijan Robinson
Bijan has established himself as one of the best RBs in the NFL in just 3 seasons. However, the Falcons offense has a huge question mark at the quarterback position with two QBs that have been terrible at staying healthy. There is a world where Tua checks down to Bijan at an Achane level rate, but I believe that is one of the only ways Bijan can keep up with Gibbs this season.
The main reason Bijan is still so high up here is because the talent is absolutely undeniable. He has proven to be one of the most elusive backs in the NFL, constantly making something out of nothing behind the LOS. He also leads the NFL in scrimmage yards since entering the league by over 400 yards (5648)
Just like Gibbs, Bijan also loses a thorn in his side with the departure of Tyler Allgeier. Bijan will be a top fantasy option just like last season, but the offensive infrastructure and the question mark at QB puts him just behind Gibbs for me
3. Ja’Marr Chase
Chase will be the only WR I put in this tier simply because I believe he’s the only active WR capable of putting up 17+ TDs. Chase has already shown us a triple crown level season in 2024 when Burrow played all 17 games. Although Cincy made improvements on defense, I think there’s reason to believe they will still be a pass heavy team in a bunch of shootouts
The one thing you have to worry about with Chase is a Burrow injury, but even then it’s Joe Flacco backing him up who had no problem keeping Chase afloat last season.
Tier 2 - OPOY Candidates
4. Christian McCaffrey
Coming off a season with over 400+ touches and entering his age 30 season, CMC is the riskiest pick in fantasy this year. But as he showed us last year, the upside is way too good to fade. McCaffrey was one of the most inefficient rushers in the NFL at 3.9 YPC & still finished as the RB1 overall averaging 24.5 FPPG
The league-winning upside is just too good to pass up here compared to the guys behind him. If you’re worried about the injury, I get it. I did the same thing last year and got burnt by it.
Until he starts showing regression as a receiving threat, he still has RB1 overall upside that’s worth a top 5 pick
5. Puka Nacua
Puka is coming off a year as the runner up for OPOY after putting up 1700 yards and 11 TDs in 16 games. He is a top 3 YAC threat in the NFL and is in one of the best offensive infrastructures in the NFL with Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford.
However, the thing that keeps him a tier below Chase for me is the TD upside. In 44 career games, Puka has just 21 total TDs. He is coming off a career high (11), but there is reason to believe Stafford’s TD total falls & Adams is still the go to in the red zone. Also, the additions that the Rams made in the offseason make me believe that they’ll be in far less shootouts with less total pass attempts. Along with all this, there’s a chance he faces suspension this year and he is currently dealing with an injury.
Still, Puka is one of the premier wide receivers in the NFL with the reigning MVP Matthew Stafford at QB. His fantasy PPG has trended up every year since he’s got in the league and he has the upside of WR1 overall. He just comes with the risk of being a serious headache this season due to injury/suspension
6. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The reigning OPOY comes in here at 6th with a major concern - the departure of OC Klint Kubiak. Kubiak was largely credited with unlocking JSN outside of his slot-only role he had with the team before.
There is some reason to worry JSN’s production will dip in 2026 just because most 1800 yard WRs don’t tend to repeat. However, the Seahawks were one of the lowest pass rate teams in the NFL in 2025 at just 50.3% (3rd lowest). Their new OC, Brian Fleury, also comes from the Shanahan tree and just spent 7 seasons as the TE and run game coordinator in San Francisco.
Losing Kubiak may hurt the Seahawks, but if the new OC passes at a higher rate, this could end up actually benefitting JSN in 2026.
7. Jonathan Taylor
By midseason, Taylor was leading the OPOY race and even making a push for MVP. However, once Daniel Jones went down and the offense fell apart, Taylor’s production came back to earth & the Colts looked like a shell of themselves through the end of the season.
All reports indicate that Daniel Jones will be good to go for week 1 and this offense should be great again. However, along with worrying about Jones’ health, you also have to worry about Taylor’s health himself. He’s only played 2 full seasons out of 6 and misses time pretty consistently. When the offense is at its peak, JT has the upside of RB1 overall. However, he comes with a good amount of risk at his current price.
8. Justin Jefferson
Perhaps my biggest stand this year will be that Justin Jefferson is a fantastic pick and carries as much upside as any WR on the board. However, he goes at around 10-12 overall on most formats.
I wrote about it in a separate article, but I am very high on Kyler Murray and his ability to feed a true number 1 WR as he showed in Arizona with DeAndre Hopkins. Jefferson is also entering his age 27 season, which for most WRs is peak fantasy production.
My main worry is Kyler’s health as he’s coming off a season where he missed 12 games due to a foot injury. However, he’s been practicing all offseason, and it doesn’t look to be bothering him. By the end of 2026, I think Kyler and Jefferson will be considered one of the best QB-WR connections in the NFL
Tier 3 - Elite
9. Amon-Ra St. Brown
Perhaps the most consistent fantasy WR since he’s entered the league, St. Brown has finished as the WR3 for 3 straight years. Since 2023, he has the 2nd most targets, 2nd most receptions, 3rd most receiving yards & the most receiving TDs. However, he’s only gone over the 20+ FPPG mark once (2023), which keeps him just outside the OPOY tier.
If you’re drafting St. Brown, you pretty much know what you’re going to get. An elite season with consistency, but just never quite reaching that OPOY level peak. He’s a strong pick, but I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to aim higher here at the end of the first round
10. James Cook
Cook led the NFL in rushing yards at 1621 and was a key part of the Bills success last year. However, there are plenty of signs for some regression in 2026. He had a career high 309 attempts and the Bills led the NFL in rush attempts at 547. Additionally, longtime run coordinator and offensive line coach Aaron Kromer retired.
Even with some possible regression coming, he is the clear starter in a top 5 offense led by an MVP level QB. Former offensive coordinator Joe Brady is now the head coach, and it’s reasonable to assume the offense will be very similar to how it’s been over the years. Still, with Cook averaging just 2 receptions per game over the last 2 seasons, his fantasy upside is capped until he becomes more featured in the receiving game
11. Ashton Jeanty
Nothing seemed to go Ashton Jeanty’s way in 2025 behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. He had one of the lowest yds before contact / att at 1.6 but was 3rd in the NFL in broken tackles at 24 and had a respectable 2.1 yards after contact/att
Now, with a new HC in Klint Kubiak & an improved OL adding Tyler Linderbaum & a healthy Kolton Miller back, it’s reasonable to be optimistic about Jeanty’s upside this season. However, the Raiders still project to be a pretty low scoring offense at 19.2 ppg (5th fewest) while also having the 7th hardest schedule based off last years win totals.
Jeanty’s path to elite fantasy production will be through a ton of volume (20-25 touches per game) & it’s not unreasonable to imagine the Raiders leaning on him even more this season. The talent is undeniable, but his situation may just have a capped ceiling for now.
Tier 4 - Strong Picks
12. Saquon Barkley
Similarly to Justin Jefferson, Saquon is a superstar level talent down here at the 1-2 turn due to a poor 2025 season. However, we are just one year removed from Saquon rushing for 2000 yards and winning OPOY. Saquon still looked the part last year, breaking tackles & flashing some big play ability. It just came at a much lower rate due to injuries across the OL.
At his current price (RB8/ADP16), Saquon doesn’t even need to get back to 2024 heights to return value. With a new scheme and a healthy OL in 2026, it’s worth betting on a bounce back year at this cost. However, there is still some cause for concern on his upside in 2026. Saquon has not been featured as a receiver since he arrived in Philadelphia (2.2 rec/gm). We know he is capable of high-volume receiving seasons as he’s showed in New York, but he just has not been asked to do so in Philly. Additionally, Saquon is entering his age 29 season. Still not quite at the age falloff most RBs face, but he’s getting up there.
Overall, I like taking the bet on Saquon at the end of round 1 and think he’s due for a fantastic year with a new OC and healthy OL.
13. De’Von Achane
Achane is one of the most controversial picks in fantasy football this season, losing his OC Mike McDaniel and his checkdown king at QB Tua Tagavailoa. The main thing to worry about with Achane is the offense being so terrible this season & Willis not checking down as much as Tua has in the past. While it’s pretty much a guarantee Achane sees less checkdown volume, it’s hard to see the offense be much worse than last season where he averaged 20+ FPPG
Last season, the Dolphins were bottom 5 in total points at 347 (20.2 ppg). This season, they project to be a little worse at 19 ppg, but not much different than where they were at.
Overall, Achane is an extremely talented player stuck in a tough situation. We’ve seen elite players in the recent past have good fantasy seasons in bad situations, and Achane is certainly capable of it. Overall, I think Achane is a good pick at his current ADP & like him over other RBs like Chase Brown, Omarion Hampton, and Kenneth Walker
14. CeeDee Lamb
There’s a lot to like with this Cowboys offense in 2026 - Dak has shown to be a very fantasy friendly QB, Pickens raises the overall ceiling & their weak defense suggests a lot of shootouts. Lamb is coming off a bit of a down year due to an injury, but Pickens has made a serious case he may be the WR1 in Dallas.
With both healthy, there’s a chance they limit each other’s upside. However, we’ve seen plenty of WR tandems in recent memory (Hill/Waddle, AJ Brown/Smith, Puka/Adams) both be high end starters in fantasy, and Dak is certainly capable of supporting both. However, I don’t think we see Lamb hit 2023 heights this year due to George Pickens just taking too much production. Pickens established himself as one of the best deep threats in the NFL last season and he is clearly motivated to get a long-term deal in 2027.
Overall, he’s a solid pick here at the end of the 1st and very likely won’t sink your season. He’s averaged 17 FPPG over his entire career and comes with a very safe floor as long as Dak is healthy. If Pickens were to go down, there is real WR1 overall upside.
15. Malik Nabers
Finishing off this tier is Malik Nabers, another extremely controversial player due to his knee injury suffered in week 4 last season. From the clips we’ve seen in training camp so far, Nabers looks good to go for week 1 and avoided the PUP list to start the year.
We’ve yet to see him with Jaxson Dart outside of the first half vs the Chargers, but it’s hard to imagine Dart will be worse than what he was working with in his rookie year when he put up 109-1204-7.
The Giants do not project to be a great offense in 2026, currently at 21st in expected PPG (22.1). Fortunately, this would actually be an extreme improvement from where they were at in 2024 at 16.1 PPG.
The case for Malik Nabers is his absurd target share at 35% he demanded in 2024, and there isn’t any reason to expect that to be different looking at their depth chart. The worry is that the injury derails his season and he’s in a much more limited role than his rookie year.
There is JSN level upside with Nabers, but a huge question mark regarding his health. I don’t have any questions at QB, and even if Dart gets injured, you have an arguably better QB for fantasy purposes in Jameis Winston
For those who don’t like reading as much, here’s the TL;DR rankings & tiers:
Tier 1: Historical Season Upside
• 1. Jahmyr Gibbs
• 2. Bijan Robinson
• 3. Ja’Marr Chase
Tier 2: OPOY Candidates
• 4. Christian McCaffrey
• 5. Puka Nacua
• 6. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• 7. Jonathan Taylor
• 8. Justin Jefferson
Tier 3: Elite
• 9. Amon-Ra St. Brown
• 10. James Cook
• 11. Ashton Jeanty
Tier 4: Strong Picks
• 12. Saquon Barkley
• 13. De’Von Achane
• 14. CeeDee Lamb
• 15. Malik Nabers