Over the last couple of weeks, I have been diving into the relationship between projected team totals and fantasy football production.
Through the excellent tools on Dynatyze, I have found that there is an incredibly strong relationship between bottom five projected offenses and fantasy football busts in every skill position.
For those who may not be familiar with the term, a projected team total is a rough estimate of how many points an offense is expected to score based on a combination of statistical projections and predictive models often used by sportsbooks.
In this article, I will be going through some players you should consider avoiding in your drafts based on the historical data.
The bottom 5 projected offenses this season are:
Cardinals 18.4 PPG
Jets 18.5 PPG
Browns 18.7 PPG
Dolphins 19 PPG
Raiders 19.2 PPG
Running Backs: Headline
Since 1999, of every RB with a minimum of 200 carries on a projected bottom 5 offense, only 25% finished in the top 12 RBs in total fantasy points.
Pretty big implications for the likes of Breece Hall (ADP RB14), Ashton Jeanty (ADP RB6), Jeremiyah Love (ADP, RB13), De’Von Achane (ADP RB12) and Quinshon Judkins (ADP RB24).
If we increase the number of carries to 230+, still only 31% of RBs on bottom five projected offenses finish in the top 12.
If you draft one of these guys, you’re probably expecting a little more than a top 12 finish.
Just 3.8% of RBs with 230 + carries on bottom five projected offenses finish as a top 5 RB.
But, as we all know, a running back’s fantasy value isn’t just tied to carries. Receptions play a huge part.