Over the last couple of weeks, I have been diving into the relationship between projected team totals and fantasy football production.
Through the excellent tools on Dynatyze, I have found that there is an incredibly strong relationship between bottom five projected offenses and fantasy football busts in every skill position.
For those who may not be familiar with the term, a projected team total is a rough estimate of how many points an offense is expected to score based on a combination of statistical projections and predictive models often used by sportsbooks.
In this article, I will be going through some players you should consider avoiding in your drafts based on the historical data.
The bottom 5 projected offenses this season are:
Cardinals 18.4 PPG
Jets 18.5 PPG
Browns 18.7 PPG
Dolphins 19 PPG
Raiders 19.2 PPG
Running Backs: Headline
Since 1999, of every RB with a minimum of 200 carries on a projected bottom 5 offense, only 25% finished in the top 12 RBs in total fantasy points.
Pretty big implications for the likes of Breece Hall (ADP RB14), Ashton Jeanty (ADP RB6), Jeremiyah Love (ADP, RB13), De’Von Achane (ADP RB12) and Quinshon Judkins (ADP RB24).
If we increase the number of carries to 230+, still only 31% of RBs on bottom five projected offenses finish in the top 12.
If you draft one of these guys, you’re probably expecting a little more than a top 12 finish.
Just 3.8% of RBs with 230 + carries on bottom five projected offenses finish as a top 5 RB.
But, as we all know, a running back’s fantasy value isn’t just tied to carries. Receptions play a huge part.
If a running back records 40 receptions (Achane and Jeanty hit that mark last season), they finish as a top 12 RB 29% of the time. Still, not a great hit rate.
If we change the threshold to 50 receptions (Achane and Jeanty both hit that last season), they finish as a top 12 RB 45% of the time. It’s better but still suggests there is an element of risk to drafting these players.
The key takeaway is this: if you draft a running back from a team with one of the projected bottom 5 offenses, make sure they have pass catching upside. I believe that Achane, and Jeanty have the potential to hit 50/60+ receptions. I think that it is possible that Hall and Love record at least 40 receptions - perhaps even 50+. Judkins I’m more skeptical of hitting that number - he was on pace for just 29 receptions last season before getting injured.
Risky: Ashton Jeanty, De’Von Achane, Breece Hall and Jeremiyah Love
Avoid: Quinshon Judkins
Wide Receivers: Headline
Since 2009, wide receivers on bottom five projected offenses with 100+ targets finish as top 12 WR just 8.5% of the time.
Wow. Bad news for Garrett Wilson (ADP WR21) , Marvin Harrison Jr (ADP WR34), Michael Wilson (ADP WR44) and every Browns, Raiders and Dolphins receiver.
Most likely, your season isn’t going to be decided by a Browns, Raiders or Dolphins receiver. But Garrett Wilson and the Cardinals receivers are being drafted with expectations.
Since 2009, wide receivers on bottom five projected offenses with 100+ targets finish in the top 24 39% of the time.
In 2023, Wilson was targeted 168 times - he finished as the WR26 that season. Historically, a receiver has to get to 140 targets to have better than a 1 in 4 chance of ranking top 12 whilst on a projected bottom 5 offense (27%). That’s because the projected worse offenses often have the worst quarterback play.
In the last two years, we have had Chris Olave, Malik Nabers and Jerry Jeudy finish in the top 12 WRs whilst being on projected bottom five offenses. It is incredibly rare but there’s precedent.
Avoid: Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr & Michael Wilson
Tight Ends: Headline
Of every tight end from 2009 on a bottom 5 projected offense with a minimum of 75 targets, they finish top 12 at 54% - the highest rate of any position group.
That’s great news considering the top 2 tight ends in fantasy football both play on bottom five projected offenses.
If we change 75+ targets to 100+ targets, that number becomes 92% in the top 12 - 38% in the top five. Brock Bowers (ADP TE1) and Trey McBride (ADP TE2) will have had to miss time if they don’t hit 100+ targets.
In his rookie season, Harold Fannin (ADP TE7) recorded 107 targets - even with the addition of two rookie receivers, Fannin is a pretty safe bet to hit that number again.
Greg Dulcich has been gathering momentum over the course of the off-season. He is currently going as the TE 25 in drafts. On a team with limited pass catchers, Dulcich has a pathway to 75 targets.
Whilst Kenyon Sadiq (ADP TE21) doesn’t have the collegiate production of recent first round successes and is missing extended time, if he can reach the target threshold - big if - he is a solid late round dart throw.
Draft: Brock Bowers (duh), Tre McBride (duh) and Harold Fannin.
Take a Chance on Me: Greg Dulcich and Kenyon Sadiq
Quarterbacks: Headline
Of every QB on a bottom five projected offense since 1999 with a minimum of 350 + pass attempts, they finish as a top 12 QB just 3.1% of the time.
If you ever have to start Jacoby Brissett (ADP QB30), Geno Smith (ADP QB29), Kirk Cousins ADP QB33), Fernando Mendoza (ADP QB28), Shedeur Sanders (ADP QB32) or DeShaun Watson (ADP QB35), I wish you all the very best from the bottom of my heart.
But there will be some people taking a gamble on Malik Willis. If you want some positive spin on Willis, consider this: 50% of QBs since 1999 on a bottom five projected offense with a minimum of 500+ rushing yards have finished as a top 12 QB.
Avoid: Everyone apart from Malik Willis. Come on.
Final Word
There’s always going to be statistical anomalies, but the evidence surrounding the potential upside of players on projected bottom five offenses is compelling enough to make you think twice about who you put your faith in every Sunday.