2018 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 16, 2018 · Lambeau Field

Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay Packers

MIN -2 upsetO 45 ✓Vikings closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

A 29–29 tie. Biggest swing: OT 3:57, GB +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 3:57MIN — GB GB ball · 4th & 11MIN 71%

(3:57) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 3:57GB +43% win prob(3:57) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.
OT · 0:04MIN +41% win prob(:04) 7-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.
OT · 7:36MIN +33% win prob(7:36) 7-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.
Q4 · 0:03MIN +32% win prob(:03) 2-M.Crosby 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Packers
Offensive plays	69	69
Total yards	482 (edge)	351
Yards per play	7.0 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	0.19 (edge)	0.01
Success rate	51% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	77%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29 (edge)	0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

35/48, 425 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

16.0 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

30/42, 281 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.6 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Jamaal WilliamsRB

16 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

10 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

12/13 for 131 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Stefon DiggsWR

9/13 for 128 yds, 2 TD

27% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	9	23	4:20	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 8	5	17	3:12	Defensive touchdown
3	MIN	MIN 43	10	57	4:24	Touchdown
4	GB	GB 25	13	70	5:36	Touchdown
5	MIN	MIN 25	6	22	2:37	Punt
6	GB	GB 20	4	3	1:30	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 19	6	24	1:51	Punt
8	GB	GB 9	4	3	2:05	Punt
9	MIN	MIN 46	7	34	2:48	Turnover on downs
10	GB	GB 38	5	28	1:37	Turnover on downs
11	MIN	MIN 25	7	13	3:24	Punt
12	GB	GB 11	10	62	5:04	Turnover on downs
13	MIN	MIN 25	5	5	1:38	Punt
14	GB	GB 24	4	1	1:35	Punt
15	MIN	MIN 29	10	71	4:02	Touchdown
16	GB	GB 25	11	57	6:42	Turnover on downs
17	MIN	MIN 25	4	75	0:17	Touchdown
18	GB	GB 31	11	49	5:05	Turnover on downs
19	MIN	MIN 25	2	0	0:09	Interception
20	GB	MIN 13	4	0	0:19	Turnover on downs
21	MIN	MIN 25	10	62	1:14	Touchdown
22	GB	GB 25	6	41	0:31	Turnover on downs
23	MIN	MIN 30	8	39	2:28	Turnover on downs
24	GB	GB 39	6	14	3:44	Punt
25	MIN	MIN 20	8	63	3:48	Turnover on downs

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 75 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	35/48	425	4	1	2	16.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	10	38	3.8	-0.9
Latavius Murray	4	19	4.8	-1.0
Kirk Cousins	2	5	2.5	-0.8
C.J. Ham	1	5	5.0	0.7
Stefon Diggs	1	1	1.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	12	13	131	1	27%	9.8
Stefon Diggs	9	13	128	2	27%	7.1
Kyle Rudolph	7	8	72	0	17%	5.0
Dalvin Cook	3	5	52	0	10%	2.6
Laquon Treadwell	2	6	23	1	13%	-5.1
David Morgan	2	2	19	0	4%	0.9
Stacy Coley	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Kendricks	2	6	0.0	1
Harrison Smith	6	2	0.0	0
Xavier Rhodes	8	0	0.0	0
Andrew Sendejo	6	1	0.0	0
Trae Waynes	5	0	0.0	0
Danielle Hunter	4	1	1.0	0
Mackensie Alexander	5	0	1.0	0
Anthony Barr	1	2	0.0	0
David Parry	1	1	1.0	0
Stephen Weatherly	2	0	0.0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	30/42	281	1	0	4	1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jamaal Williams	16	59	3.7	-2.3
Ty Montgomery	5	31	6.2	0.7
Aaron Rodgers	3	8	2.7	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jimmy Graham	6	8	95	0	20%	4.0
Davante Adams	8	12	64	1	29%	4.5
Geronimo Allison	6	6	64	0	15%	3.5
Randall Cobb	4	6	30	0	15%	0.9
Jamaal Williams	3	4	12	0	10%	-2.3
Ty Montgomery	1	2	9	0	5%	-0.4
Lance Kendricks	1	1	4	0	2%	0.0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.6
Marcedes Lewis	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Blake Martinez	4	5	0.0	0	1
Jaire Alexander	7	1	0.5	0	0
Kentrell Brice	4	2	0.0	0	0
Tramon Williams	5	0	0.0	0	0
Antonio Morrison	1	3	0.0	0	0
Josh Jackson	4	0	0.0	0	0
Kenny Clark	2	2	1.0	0	1
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix	3	0	0.0	1	1
Jermaine Whitehead	3	0	0.0	0	1
Kevin King	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -2
Closing total: 45
MIN moneyline: -121
GB moneyline: +110

Vikings closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 58 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: MIN 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Mike McCarthy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.