2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · M&T Bank Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Baltimore Ravens

BAL -2.5 upsetU 49 ✓15 mph windRavens closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 24–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:24, NO +28% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:24NO — BAL BAL ballNO 59%

9-J.Tucker extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker's first missed extra point after 222 made in a row.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:24NO +28% win prob9-J.Tucker extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker's first missed extra point after 222 made in a row.
Q4 · 3:47BAL +18% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 83-W.Snead IV. PENALTY on NO-26-P.Williams, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Q4 · 0:28BAL +17% win prob(:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 13-J.Brown for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:17BAL +16% win prob(1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 13-J.Brown to NO 02 for 56 yards (43-M.Williams).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Ravens
Offensive plays	69	64
Total yards	340	351 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.16 (edge)	0.13
Success rate	51% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	45%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	0.05
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Joe FlaccoQB

23/39, 279 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.8 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

22/30, 212 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.1 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

17 att, 64 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Alex CollinsRB

11 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

John BrownWR

7/7 for 134 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 14.8 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

7/9 for 69 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	21	66	10:03	Fumble
2	BAL	BAL 6	9	43	4:37	Punt
3	NO	NO 13	6	8	1:53	Fumble
4	BAL	BAL 23	17	63	7:23	Turnover on downs
5	NO	NO 25	10	71	4:11	Touchdown
6	BAL	BAL 25	8	74	1:49	Touchdown
7	NO	—	1	0	0:04	End of half
8	BAL	BAL 23	8	30	4:00	Punt
9	NO	NO 1	7	16	3:28	Punt
10	BAL	BAL 39	11	61	4:02	Touchdown
11	NO	NO 25	14	75	5:58	Touchdown
12	BAL	BAL 25	5	-10	1:16	Punt
13	NO	NO 44	13	56	6:18	Touchdown
14	BAL	BAL 14	10	24	1:39	Turnover on downs
15	NO	NO 36	7	48	1:12	Turnover on downs
16	BAL	BAL 19	8	66	1:43	Touchdown
17	NO	BAL 48	2	0	0:24	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 75 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	22/30	212	2	0	1	7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	17	64	3.8	1	0.5
Taysom Hill	6	35	5.8	0	-0.3
Mark Ingram	12	32	2.7	0	-0.4
Drew Brees	4	3	0.8	0	2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	7	9	69	1	32%	5.4
Tre'Quan Smith	3	6	44	0	21%	0.3
Benjamin Watson	6	6	43	1	21%	4.5
Dan Arnold	2	3	35	0	11%	1.4
Alvin Kamara	2	2	11	0	7%	-0.8
Mark Ingram	2	2	10	0	7%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
A.J. Klein	5	2	0.0	0
Ken Crawley	6	0	0.0	1
Demario Davis	4	1	0.0	1
David Onyemata	3	1	0.0	0
Marcus Williams	2	2	0.0	0
Alex Okafor	2	1	1.0	1
Sheldon Rankins	2	1	0.0	0
Marshon Lattimore	3	0	0.0	2
Taysom Hill	2	0	0.0	0
Manti Te'o	2	0	0.0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	23/39	279	2	0	1	7.8
Lamar Jackson	1/1	5	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alex Collins	11	38	3.5	0	-2.8
Willie Snead	1	13	13.0	0	1.5
Lamar Jackson	3	9	3.0	1	2.9
Chris Moore	1	9	9.0	0	0.9
Joe Flacco	1	4	4.0	0	0.6
Javorius Allen	3	3	1.0	0	-1.3
Maxx Williams	1	1	1.0	0	0.4
Gus Edwards	2	0	0.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
John Brown	7	7	134	1	19%	14.8
Michael Crabtree	5	9	66	0	24%	1.9
Willie Snead	3	7	23	0	19%	-4.2
Javorius Allen	3	3	21	0	8%	0.5
Chris Moore	1	2	14	0	5%	-0.5
Alex Collins	3	4	10	0	11%	-2.1
Mark Andrews	1	1	8	1	3%	2.0
Nick Boyle	1	2	8	0	5%	-0.0
Hayden Hurst	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
C.J. Mosley	10	5	0.0
Eric Weddle	4	2	0.0
Tony Jefferson	5	1	0.0
Michael Pierce	3	1	0.0
Kenny Young	3	1	0.0
Tavon Young	3	0	0.0
Chris Wormley	3	0	0.0
Terrell Suggs	3	0	1.0
Jimmy Smith	2	1	0.0
Brandon Williams	3	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -2.5
Closing total: 49
NO moneyline: +129
BAL moneyline: -143

Ravens closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49; the game landed 47 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: John Parry
Rest: NO 13 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs John Harbaugh

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.