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2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
SaintsNew Orleans24
BY 1final margin
RavensBaltimore23
New Orleans Saints 24 at Baltimore Ravens 23. Final.
Ravens -2.5 upsetU 49 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 7
New Orleans Saints 24, Ravens 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:24 — 28.1 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:24
Unnamed on the sheet
Saints
9-J.Tucker extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker's first missed extra point after 222 made in a row.
15.6 mph wind
Ravens closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New Orleans Saints 24–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:24, Saints +28.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.6 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
28.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joe FlaccoRavensQ4 3:47(3:47) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 83-W.Snead IV. PENALTY on NO-26-P.Williams, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
17.9pts
John BrownRavensQ4 0:28(:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 13-J.Brown for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Saints at 2 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Ravens at 2 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 5 points apart.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Saints168 of 175 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 0:24Saints 24 — Ravens 23BAL ballNO 59%
Saints 59%Ravens 41%
9-J.Tucker extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker's first missed extra point after 222 made in a row.
Swing −28.1 for RavensExpected points −0.93 for RavensThe model had Ravens 2 points higher than the market did.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:24NO +28% win prob9-J.Tucker extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker's first missed extra point after 222 made in a row.
4th · 3:47BAL +18% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 83-W.Snead IV. PENALTY on NO-26-P.Williams, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
4th · 0:28BAL +17% win prob(:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 13-J.Brown for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:17BAL +16% win prob(1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 13-J.Brown to NO 02 for 56 yards (43-M.Williams).
4th · 7:03BAL +12% win prob(7:03) 9-D.Brees up the middle to BAL 17 for 1 yard (57-C.Mosley).
4th · 5:04BAL +12% win prob(5:04) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Brees throws 501st career touchdown pass.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Thomas's 5-yard touchdown catch with 5:04 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd6:07Justin Tucker·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+30–3
4th2:15Wil Lutz·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+324–17
4th0:28John Brown·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco · kick no good, wide right+624–23
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryRavens
Saints4–3Ravens
340Total yards351
4.9Yards per play5.5
51%Success rate47%
43%Third-down rate42%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays2
24First downs21
1Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Saints ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Saints: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.13Ravens: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Saints: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.18Ravens: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Saints: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.05Ravens: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 69 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Ravens’s 64 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Ravens 4.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NO's sack or hit rate, 4.9%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
BAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 39.3% in week 6 against 9.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Ravens9.7%
inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 83.3%, 47.6 points above their season mean of 35.7% and 1.8 times their own 25.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Tucker extra−29% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
9-J.Tucker extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker's first missed extra point after 222 made in a row.
Q4 0:24 · Ravens · PAT at NO 15 · gained nothing · -0.93 EP · −29.3% win probability
166 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 75 yards from the NO 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
48%
Yards
690
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.1568%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21+0.0419%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.0853%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.2777%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.6983%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.2383%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.7167%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.2850%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.6920%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints3 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Offense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost23 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Ravens 4
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 6 to midfield
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Saints 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Saints0Ravens3
Field goal17 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Saints 14
Saints6Ravens3
Saints7Ravens3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Ravens 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Saints7Ravens9
Saints7Ravens10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Saints 1
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Saints 44
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 1 to the Saints 20
Saints7Ravens16
Saints7Ravens17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Saints 8
The period ended9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Ravens 27
4th quarter58 plays
Saints13Ravens17
Saints14Ravens17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 2
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Saints20Ravens17
Saints21Ravens17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 44 to the Ravens 5
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Saints 36
Saints24Ravens17
Field goal9 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Ravens 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Saints24Ravens23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Saints 14
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
