2018 Week 10 · Thu, Nov 8, 2018 · Heinz Field

Carolina Panthers

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

PIT -3.5 ✓O 51 ✓Steelers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 31.

Pittsburgh Steelers 52–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:13, CAR +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:13CAR — PIT CAR ball · 1st & 10PIT 63%

(10:13) 1-C.Newton pass short middle intended for 17-D.Funchess INTERCEPTED by 98-V.Williams [90-T.Watt] at CAR 17. 98-V.Williams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pressure by 90-Watt.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:13CAR +16% win prob(10:13) 1-C.Newton pass short middle intended for 17-D.Funchess INTERCEPTED by 98-V.Williams [90-T.Watt] at CAR 17. 98-V.Williams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pressure by 90-Watt.
Q1 · 10:29PIT +15% win prob(10:29) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 13:32PIT +10% win prob(13:32) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey left guard to PIT 31 for 21 yards (34-T.Edmunds).
Q1 · 11:19PIT +5% win prob(11:19) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to PIT 20 for 2 yards (24-C.Sensabaugh, 51-J.Bostic).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Steelers
Offensive plays	56	57
Total yards	242	458 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	8.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.03	0.46 (edge)
Success rate	46%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	0.94 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.08
Third downs	4/11	8/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

22/25, 328 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

27.7 expected points added · +17.8% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

23/29, 193 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-4.6 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

14 att, 77 yds, 1 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

13 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Antonio BrownWR

6/6 for 96 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

3/5 for 90 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	11	75	4:31	Touchdown
2	PIT	PIT 25	3	75	0:11	Touchdown
3	CAR	CAR 12	2	0	0:13	Defensive touchdown
4	CAR	CAR 25	5	1	1:09	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 39	9	61	4:21	Touchdown
6	CAR	CAR 25	10	34	4:48	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 8	9	60	5:01	Turnover on downs
8	CAR	CAR 27	11	73	4:42	Touchdown
9	PIT	PIT 25	6	75	1:56	Touchdown
10	CAR	CAR 25	9	23	2:06	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 11	4	26	1:02	End of half
12	PIT	PIT 25	14	75	6:42	Touchdown
13	CAR	CAR 30	5	-2	2:12	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 35	12	58	5:48	Touchdown
15	CAR	—	1	0	0:08	Fumble
16	PIT	CAR 9	3	9	0:15	Touchdown
17	CAR	CAR 26	8	2	3:54	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 28	4	2	1:35	Punt
19	CAR	CAR 42	8	34	3:51	Touchdown
20	PIT	PIT 14	7	17	3:44	Punt
21	CAR	CAR 12	3	2	1:51	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	23/29	193	2	1	5	-4.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	14	77	5.5	1	3.0
Cam Newton	2	10	5.0	0	0.7
D.J. Moore	1	5	5.0	0	-0.0
Alex Armah	2	3	1.5	0	-0.2
Curtis Samuel	1	1	1.0	0	-0.4
C.J. Anderson	2	-1	-0.5	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	5	5	61	2	18%	5.4
Greg Olsen	4	6	40	0	21%	2.1
Devin Funchess	3	5	32	0	18%	-5.2
Jarius Wright	3	3	22	0	11%	3.0
D.J. Moore	4	5	20	0	18%	-0.8
Curtis Samuel	4	4	18	0	14%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Reid	6	3	0.0	0
James Bradberry	5	1	0.0	0
Luke Kuechly	3	3	0.0	0
Thomas Davis	2	3	0.0	0
Donte Jackson	4	0	0.0	0
Mike Adams	1	3	0.0	0
Dontari Poe	1	2	0.0	0
Julius Peppers	1	2	1.0	1
Curtis Samuel	2	0	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	1	1	0.0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	22/25	328	5	0	1	27.7
Joshua Dobbs	1/2	-3	0	0	0	-2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	13	65	5.0	1	1.0
Ben Roethlisberger	3	27	9.0	0	2.6
Stevan Ridley	8	26	3.3	0	-1.1
JuJu Smith-Schuster	1	13	13.0	0	0.6
Jaylen Samuels	5	7	1.4	0	-2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Brown	6	6	96	1	22%	6.4
JuJu Smith-Schuster	3	5	90	1	19%	5.0
Vance McDonald	4	4	44	1	15%	7.5
Ryan Switzer	2	2	31	0	7%	3.8
Jaylen Samuels	3	4	22	1	15%	0.5
Roosevelt Nix	2	2	17	0	7%	1.0
Darrius Heyward-Bey	1	1	9	0	4%	0.7
James Conner	1	1	8	0	4%	0.5
Jesse James	1	1	8	1	4%	2.1
Stevan Ridley	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jon Bostic	5	4	0.0	0	0
Morgan Burnett	3	2	0.0	0	0
Vince Williams	3	1	1.0	1	1
Sean Davis	3	1	0.0	0	0
Javon Hargrave	4	0	0.0	0	0
Terrell Edmunds	3	1	0.0	0	0
Joe Haden	2	1	0.0	0	0
Coty Sensabaugh	2	1	0.0	0	1
Cameron Heyward	2	1	2.0	0	0
Bud Dupree	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -3.5
Closing total: 51
CAR moneyline: +170
PIT moneyline: -189

Steelers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 31.

Total closed 51; the game landed 73 — over by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Walt Coleman
Rest: CAR 4 days · PIT 4 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Mike Tomlin