2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Miami Dolphins

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -9 no coverU 52.5 ✓DomeColts closed -9, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Indianapolis Colts 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, IND +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:00MIA — IND IND ball · 3rd & 9IND 69%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 80-C.Rogers to MIA 23 for 34 yards (20-R.Jones).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:00IND +17% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 80-C.Rogers to MIA 23 for 34 yards (20-R.Jones).
Q4 · 6:08IND +15% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton to MIA 25 for 36 yards (25-X.Howard).
Q2 · 1:15IND +13% win prob(1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 88-L.Carroo for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-K.Turay].
Q3 · 1:29IND +12% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 32-K.Drake to IND 40 for 7 yards (53-D.Leonard, 96-D.Autry) [94-T.Lewis].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Colts
Offensive plays	50	65
Total yards	315	455 (edge)
Yards per play	6.3	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.06	0.11 (edge)
Success rate	42%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	54%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09	0.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	-0.10
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

30/37, 343 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

11.6 expected points added · +12.0% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Ryan TannehillQB

17/25, 204 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.8 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Marlon MackRB

15 att, 85 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Frank GoreRB

14 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

7/10 for 125 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Kenyan DrakeRB

5/6 for 64 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	8	75	2:38	Touchdown
2	IND	IND 25	7	75	2:45	Touchdown
3	MIA	MIA 25	10	37	4:33	Punt
4	IND	IND 8	3	39	1:31	Fumble
5	MIA	IND 47	6	16	2:46	Punt
6	IND	IND 11	4	9	0:54	Punt
7	MIA	MIA 34	4	3	2:16	Punt
8	IND	IND 14	5	31	2:21	Punt
9	MIA	MIA 11	4	12	2:43	Punt
10	IND	IND 27	14	58	5:49	Touchdown
11	MIA	MIA 25	4	75	0:44	Touchdown
12	IND	IND 25	2	0	0:07	Interception
13	MIA	MIA 40	1	5	0:07	Fumble
14	IND	MIA 45	1	0	0:10	Interception
15	MIA	MIA 6	1	0	0:36	End of half
16	IND	IND 25	5	8	1:28	Punt
17	MIA	IND 42	8	36	4:18	Turnover on downs
18	IND	IND 25	12	45	5:43	Turnover on downs
19	MIA	MIA 38	10	57	4:55	Touchdown
20	IND	IND 25	11	57	5:10	Turnover on downs
21	MIA	MIA 25	5	-5	0:43	Punt
22	IND	IND 11	8	89	3:18	Touchdown
23	MIA	MIA 6	5	4	1:47	Punt
24	IND	IND 42	7	44	2:38	Turnover on downs

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 89 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	17/25	204	2	0	1	5.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Frank Gore	14	67	4.8	0	1.7
Kenyan Drake	8	32	4.0	1	-1.4
Ryan Tannehill	3	14	4.7	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Leonte Carroo	1	2	74	1	8%	4.9
Kenyan Drake	5	6	64	1	25%	6.9
Durham Smythe	2	2	27	0	8%	1.7
Danny Amendola	1	1	13	0	4%	0.8
Frank Gore	1	2	10	0	8%	0.2
DeVante Parker	3	3	10	0	13%	-0.3
Kenny Stills	1	4	6	0	17%	-3.2
Mike Gesicki	1	1	5	0	4%	-4.1
Brice Butler	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6
Kalen Ballage	2	2	-5	0	8%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
T.J. McDonald	8	2	0	0
Reshad Jones	8	0	0	1
Akeem Spence	6	1	0	0
Raekwon McMillan	6	1	0	0
Xavien Howard	5	0	2	3
Kiko Alonso	2	2	0	0
Walt Aikens	3	0	0	0
Robert Quinn	2	1	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	3	0	0	0
Jerome Baker	2	1	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	30/37	343	3	2	1	11.6
Jacoby Brissett	1/1	4	0	0	0	2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Marlon Mack	15	85	5.7	-1.0
Nyheim Miller-Hines	9	28	3.1	-2.0
Andrew Luck	2	5	2.5	2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	7	10	125	0	26%	4.7
Chester Rogers	3	4	49	0	11%	0.8
Eric Ebron	5	7	45	2	18%	3.0
Dontrelle Inman	3	4	40	0	11%	1.7
Jordan Wilkins	3	3	32	0	8%	-3.5
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	2	22	0	5%	0.9
Jack Doyle	4	4	16	1	11%	0.2
Marlon Mack	2	2	11	0	5%	0.3
Andrew Luck	1	1	4	0	3%	2.1
Ryan Grant	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Shaquille Leonard	7	1	1.0	0
Anthony Walker	6	1	0.0	1
Clayton Geathers	4	2	0.0	0
Mike Mitchell	4	0	0.0	0
Kenny Moore	1	1	0.0	1
Malik Hooker	1	1	0.0	0
Matthew Adams	2	0	0.0	0
Margus Hunt	2	0	0.0	0
Pierre Desir	2	0	0.0	0
T.Y. Hilton	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -9
Closing total: 52.5
MIA moneyline: +341
IND moneyline: -394

Colts closed -9, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 51 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: MIA 14 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Frank Reich