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2018 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 25, 2018 · Lucas Oil Stadium
24
27
Indianapolis Colts 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, IND +17% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 80-C.Rogers to MIA 23 for 34 yards (20-R.Jones).
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Dolphins | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 50 | 65 |
| Total yards | 315 | 455 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 6.3 | 7.0 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.06 | 0.11 (edge) |
| Success rate | 42% | 51% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 54% | 62% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.09 | 0.25 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 (edge) | -0.10 |
| Third downs | 4/11 (edge) | 4/12 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 13 | 23 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 | 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 3 |
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
30/37, 343 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
11.6 expected points added · +12.0% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
17/25, 204 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
5.8 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | MIA 25 | 8 | 75 | 2:38 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | IND | IND 25 | 7 | 75 | 2:45 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | MIA | MIA 25 | 10 | 37 | 4:33 | Punt | |
| 4 | IND | IND 8 | 3 | 39 | 1:31 | Fumble | |
| 5 | MIA | IND 47 | 6 | 16 | 2:46 | Punt | |
| 6 | IND | IND 11 | 4 | 9 | 0:54 | Punt | |
| 7 | MIA | MIA 34 | 4 | 3 | 2:16 | Punt | |
| 8 | IND | IND 14 | 5 | 31 | 2:21 | Punt | |
| 9 | MIA | MIA 11 | 4 | 12 | 2:43 | Punt | |
| 10 | IND | IND 27 | 14 | 58 | 5:49 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | MIA | MIA 25 | 4 | 75 | 0:44 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | IND | IND 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:07 | Interception | |
| 13 | MIA | MIA 40 | 1 | 5 | 0:07 | Fumble | |
| 14 | IND | MIA 45 | 1 | 0 | 0:10 | Interception | |
| 15 | MIA | MIA 6 | 1 | 0 | 0:36 | End of half | |
| 16 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | 8 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 17 | MIA | IND 42 | 8 | 36 | 4:18 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | IND | IND 25 | 12 | 45 | 5:43 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | MIA | MIA 38 | 10 | 57 | 4:55 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | IND | IND 25 | 11 | 57 | 5:10 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | -5 | 0:43 | Punt | |
| 22 | IND | IND 11 | 8 | 89 | 3:18 | Touchdown | |
| 23 | MIA | MIA 6 | 5 | 4 | 1:47 | Punt | |
| 24 | IND | IND 42 | 7 | 44 | 2:38 | Turnover on downs |
0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 89 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/25 | 204 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Kenyan Drake | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 1 | -1.4 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonte Carroo | 1 | 2 | 74 | 1 | 8% | 4.9 |
| Kenyan Drake | 5 | 6 | 64 | 1 | 25% | 6.9 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 8% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. McDonald | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reshad Jones | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Akeem Spence | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon McMillan |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 30/37 | 343 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11.6 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg |
|---|
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -9, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 51 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1.7 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | 0.8 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 8% | 0.2 |
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 13% | -0.3 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 17% | -3.2 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | -4.1 |
| Brice Butler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.6 |
| Kalen Ballage | 2 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 8% | -2.1 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Xavien Howard | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Kiko Alonso | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Walt Aikens | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Quinn | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Baker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TD |
|---|
| EPA |
|---|
| Marlon Mack | 15 | 85 | 5.7 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 2.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 10 | 125 | 0 | 26% | 4.7 |
| Chester Rogers | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 11% | 0.8 |
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 7 | 45 | 2 | 18% | 3.0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 11% | 1.7 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 8% | -3.5 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 5% | 0.9 |
| Jack Doyle | 4 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 11% | 0.2 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | 0.3 |
| Andrew Luck | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | 2.1 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | -0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaquille Leonard | 7 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Walker | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Clayton Geathers | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Mitchell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Hooker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Adams | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Margus Hunt | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierre Desir | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
