2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · NRG Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Houston Texans

HOU -4 upsetU 49.5 ✓DomeTexans closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Indianapolis Colts 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 4:31, HOU +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 4:31IND — HOU IND ball · 2nd & 18IND 60%

(4:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton ran ob at HOU 12 for 34 yards (32-T.Mathieu).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 4:31HOU +13% win prob(4:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton ran ob at HOU 12 for 34 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
Q4 · 2:44HOU +12% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:03HOU +10% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 85-E.Ebron for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 7:19HOU +10% win prob(7:19) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton to HOU 4 for 60 yards (20-J.Reid).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Texans
Offensive plays	63	68
Total yards	439 (edge)	315
Yards per play	7.0 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	0.13 (edge)	0.02
Success rate	51% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	71%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26 (edge)	0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	-0.14 (edge)
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

27/41, 399 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

11.1 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

27/38, 267 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.6 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

5 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Lamar MillerRB

14 att, 33 yds, 1 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

9/12 for 199 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Ryan GriffinTE

5/5 for 80 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	5	6	1:33	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 26	4	8	1:59	Punt
3	IND	IND 45	4	5	1:42	Punt
4	HOU	HOU 20	4	-6	1:36	Punt
5	IND	IND 41	4	8	1:35	Punt
6	HOU	HOU 18	11	68	4:09	Touchdown
7	IND	IND 25	5	12	1:33	Punt
8	HOU	HOU 27	5	33	1:48	Punt
9	IND	IND 9	12	61	4:33	Interception
10	HOU	HOU 15	4	-9	2:13	Punt
11	IND	IND 36	3	64	0:46	Touchdown
12	HOU	HOU 25	5	5	1:20	Punt
13	IND	IND 34	6	66	2:16	Touchdown
14	HOU	HOU 25	6	15	1:43	Punt
15	IND	IND 11	10	53	1:14	Turnover on downs
16	HOU	HOU 25	18	75	7:22	Touchdown
17	IND	IND 25	10	75	3:47	Touchdown
18	HOU	HOU 25	12	32	4:46	Punt
19	IND	IND 7	9	37	4:16	Punt
20	HOU	HOU 9	7	29	3:08	Punt
21	IND	IND 23	5	31	2:11	Punt
22	HOU	HOU 30	7	65	1:53	Touchdown
23	IND	IND 22	7	21	2:37	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 75 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	27/41	399	2	1	2	11.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Marlon Mack	14	33	2.4	1	-2.3
Andrew Luck	6	16	2.7	0	-0.4
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	1	0.3	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	9	12	199	0	30%	9.8
Zach Pascal	5	6	68	1	15%	2.2
Eric Ebron	4	8	65	1	20%	1.7
Chester Rogers	5	6	36	0	15%	2.8
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	5	16	0	13%	-0.4
Ryan Grant	1	1	15	0	3%	1.8
Marlon Mack	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.6
Erik Swoope	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Shaquille Leonard	7	3	1.0	1
Anthony Walker	6	4	0.0	1
Clayton Geathers	6	3	0.0	1
Kenny Moore	4	1	1.0	0
Matthew Adams	3	2	0.0	0
Jabaal Sheard	2	2	0.0	0
Denico Autry	3	1	2.0	0
Margus Hunt	1	2	1.0	0
Pierre Desir	2	1	0.0	1
George Odum	2	0	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	27/38	267	1	0	5	3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Deshaun Watson	5	35	7.0	0	1.4
Lamar Miller	14	33	2.4	1	-3.2
Alfred Blue	6	21	3.5	1	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ryan Griffin	5	5	80	0	13%	6.4
Demaryius Thomas	4	6	48	0	16%	2.6
Jordan Akins	2	2	40	0	5%	4.1
DeAndre Hopkins	4	10	36	1	26%	-0.2
Jordan Thomas	4	4	31	0	11%	3.0
Lamar Miller	5	6	19	0	16%	-2.1
Joe Webb	2	3	13	0	8%	-0.3
Alfred Blue	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
DeAndre Carter	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kareem Jackson	8	2	0.0	2
Zach Cunningham	7	3	0.0	0
Justin Reid	7	2	0.0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	5	1	0.0	1
Whitney Mercilus	2	1	0.0	0
Benardrick McKinney	2	1	0.0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	2	0	0.0	0
Johnathan Joseph	2	0	0.0	1
A.J. Moore	2	0	0.0	0
J.J. Watt	2	0	1.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -4
Closing total: 49.5
IND moneyline: +176
HOU moneyline: -196

Texans closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 45 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: IND 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Bill O'Brien

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.