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2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · NRG Stadium
24
21
Indianapolis Colts 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 4:31, HOU +13% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(4:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton ran ob at HOU 12 for 34 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Colts | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 63 | 68 |
| Total yards | 439 (edge) | 315 |
| Yards per play | 7.0 (edge) | 4.6 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.13 (edge) | 0.02 |
| Success rate | 51% (edge) | 44% |
| Dropback rate | 71% | 68% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.26 (edge) | 0.10 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.20 | -0.14 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/11 (edge) | 5/15 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 (edge) | 20 |
| Sacks taken | 2 (edge) | 5 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
27/41, 399 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
11.1 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
27/38, 267 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.6 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | 6 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 2 | HOU | HOU 26 | 4 | 8 | 1:59 | Punt | |
| 3 | IND | IND 45 | 4 | 5 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 4 | HOU | HOU 20 | 4 | -6 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 5 | IND | IND 41 | 4 | 8 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 6 | HOU | HOU 18 | 11 | 68 | 4:09 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | 12 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 8 | HOU | HOU 27 | 5 | 33 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 9 | IND | IND 9 | 12 | 61 | 4:33 | Interception | |
| 10 | HOU | HOU 15 | 4 | -9 | 2:13 | Punt | |
| 11 | IND | IND 36 | 3 | 64 | 0:46 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | HOU | HOU 25 | 5 | 5 | 1:20 | Punt | |
| 13 | IND | IND 34 | 6 | 66 | 2:16 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 25 | 6 | 15 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 15 | IND | IND 11 | 10 | 53 | 1:14 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 25 | 18 | 75 | 7:22 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | IND | IND 25 | 10 | 75 | 3:47 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | HOU | HOU 25 | 12 | 32 | 4:46 | Punt | |
| 19 | IND | IND 7 | 9 | 37 | 4:16 | Punt | |
| 20 | HOU | HOU 9 | 7 | 29 | 3:08 | Punt | |
| 21 | IND | IND 23 | 5 | 31 | 2:11 | Punt | |
| 22 | HOU | HOU 30 | 7 | 65 | 1:53 | Touchdown | |
| 23 | IND | IND 22 | 7 | 21 | 2:37 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 75 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 27/41 | 399 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 1 | -2.3 |
| Andrew Luck | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 9 | 12 | 199 | 0 | 30% | 9.8 |
| Zach Pascal | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 15% | 2.2 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 8 | 65 | 1 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaquille Leonard | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Walker | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Clayton Geathers | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kenny Moore |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 27/38 | 267 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 45 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1.7 |
| Chester Rogers | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 15% | 2.8 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 13% | -0.4 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | 1.8 |
| Marlon Mack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -1.6 |
| Erik Swoope | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -2.0 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Matthew Adams | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabaal Sheard | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denico Autry | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Margus Hunt | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierre Desir | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| George Odum | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.4 |
| Lamar Miller | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 1 | -3.2 |
| Alfred Blue | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 | -0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Griffin | 5 | 5 | 80 | 0 | 13% | 6.4 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 16% | 2.6 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 5% | 4.1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 10 | 36 | 1 | 26% | -0.2 |
| Jordan Thomas | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 11% | 3.0 |
| Lamar Miller | 5 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 16% | -2.1 |
| Joe Webb | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 8% | -0.3 |
| Alfred Blue | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.7 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Jackson | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Zach Cunningham | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Whitney Mercilus | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benardrick McKinney | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Joseph | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A.J. Moore | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Watt | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
