2018 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 9, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium

New England Patriots

Miami DolphinsWinner

NE -8.5 upsetO 49.5 ✓Patriots closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 34–33 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:07, MIA +97% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:07NE — MIA MIA ball · 1st & 10NE 97%

(:07) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 10-K.Stills to MIA 45 for 14 yards. Lateral to 11-D.Parker to MIA 48 for 3 yards. Lateral to 32-K.Drake for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score r

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:07MIA +97% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 10-K.Stills to MIA 45 for 14 yards. Lateral to 11-D.Parker to MIA 48 for 3 yards. Lateral to 32-K.Drake for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
Q3 · 4:04MIA +15% win prob(4:04) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 14-B.Butler for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:14NE +11% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at MIA 9 for -7 yards (94-R.Quinn).
Q2 · 13:36MIA +11% win prob(13:36) 38-B.Bolden right tackle for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Dolphins
Offensive plays	75	45
Total yards	421 (edge)	412
Yards per play	5.6	9.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.18	0.45 (edge)
Success rate	43%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.44 (edge)	0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22	0.55 (edge)
Third downs	9/16 (edge)	1/7
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0	0

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs 0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

27/43, 358 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

19.8 expected points added · +5.1% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Ryan TannehillQB

14/19, 265 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

9.1 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Frank GoreRB

12 att, 92 yds, 0 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

20 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Kenny StillsWR

8/9 for 135 yds, 1 TD

47% of team targets · 14.8 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Rob GronkowskiTE

8/8 for 107 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 12.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	14	75	6:47	Touchdown
2	MIA	MIA 25	7	75	2:41	Touchdown
3	NE	NE 25	5	7	2:08	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 28	6	0	2:06	Punt
5	NE	MIA 18	6	18	2:04	Touchdown
6	MIA	MIA 25	4	75	0:48	Touchdown
7	NE	NE 25	8	70	2:54	Touchdown
8	MIA	MIA 25	8	75	3:04	Touchdown
9	NE	NE 25	10	75	3:39	Touchdown
10	MIA	MIA 25	5	-2	1:58	Punt
11	NE	NE 20	4	8	1:00	Punt
12	MIA	MIA 32	4	-19	0:21	Punt
13	NE	MIA 15	5	6	0:30	End of half
14	MIA	MIA 25	8	20	4:24	Punt
15	NE	NE 22	10	49	4:15	Turnover on downs
16	MIA	MIA 32	5	63	2:23	Touchdown
17	NE	NE 21	10	30	4:04	Punt
18	MIA	MIA 8	7	38	4:26	Punt
19	NE	NE 31	8	50	3:43	Turnover on downs
20	MIA	MIA 22	6	18	2:19	Punt
21	NE	NE 27	10	33	4:10	Turnover on downs
22	MIA	MIA 31	2	69	0:16	Touchdown

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 75 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	27/43	358	3	0	2	19.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	20	57	2.9	0	-2.9
James White	4	13	3.3	0	-2.0
Tom Brady	1	3	3.0	0	0.1
Rex Burkhead	4	2	0.5	0	-3.9
James Develin	1	2	2.0	1	2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rob Gronkowski	8	8	107	1	21%	12.5
Josh Gordon	5	9	96	0	23%	5.1
Julian Edelman	9	12	86	1	31%	8.9
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	3	51	1	8%	4.2
James White	2	4	15	0	10%	-0.3
Rex Burkhead	1	2	3	0	5%	-1.2
Chris Hogan	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Kyle Van Noy	3	4	0.5
Devin McCourty	5	2	0.0
Patrick Chung	2	2	0.0
Trey Flowers	3	0	2.0
Jonathan Jones	2	1	0.5
Jason McCourty	3	0	0.0
Lawrence Guy	1	1	0.0
Dont'a Hightower	2	0	1.0
Duron Harmon	2	0	0.0
Elandon Roberts	1	1	0.0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	14/19	265	3	0	4	9.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Frank Gore	12	92	7.7	0	3.8
Brandon Bolden	2	60	30.0	2	5.9
Kenyan Drake	6	24	4.0	0	1.3
Ryan Tannehill	1	13	13.0	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Stills	8	9	135	1	47%	14.8
Kenyan Drake	1	1	55	1	5%	-0.3
Frank Gore	1	1	24	0	5%	1.5
Brice Butler	1	1	23	1	5%	2.3
DeVante Parker	1	4	18	0	21%	-0.7
Danny Amendola	1	1	10	0	5%	-0.4
Brandon Bolden	1	1	0	0	5%	-0.5
Mike Gesicki	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kiko Alonso	8	2	0.0	0
T.J. McDonald	6	2	0.0	0
Raekwon McMillan	4	4	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	6	1	0.0	0
Jerome Baker	4	3	0.0	1
Bobby McCain	4	2	1.0	0
Reshad Jones	3	2	0.0	1
Torry McTyer	2	1	0.0	1
Robert Quinn	1	2	1.0	0
Akeem Spence	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -8.5
Closing total: 49.5
NE moneyline: -367
MIA moneyline: +319

Patriots closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 67 — over by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 82°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: NE 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Adam Gase

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.