2018 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 23, 2018 · Bank of America Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

Carolina Panthers

ATL -2.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓Falcons closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Atlanta Falcons 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 15:00, CAR +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 15:00ATL — CAR ATL ball · 1st & 10ATL 60%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 18-C.Ridley for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Addison].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 15:00CAR +21% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 18-C.Ridley for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Addison].
Q2 · 13:08ATL +13% win prob(13:08) 2-M.Ryan sacked at CAR 20 for -7 yards (93-K.Love). FUMBLES (93-K.Love) [93-K.Love], touched at CAR 19, RECOVERED by CAR-93-K.Love at CAR 22. 93-K.Love to CAR 22 for no gain (63-B.Garland).
Q2 · 0:56ATL +12% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 6-T.Heinicke pass short right intended for 10-C.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 95-JA.Crawford (27-D.Kazee) at ATL 2. 95-JA.Crawford to ATL 8 for 6 yards (6-T.Heinicke).
Q2 · 13:15ATL +11% win prob(13:15) (Shotgun) 6-T.Heinicke pass short left to 13-J.Wright to CAR 9 for 3 yards (45-D.Jones). FUMBLES (45-D.Jones), touched at CAR 9, RECOVERED by ATL-34-B.Poole at CAR 13.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Panthers
Offensive plays	47	83
Total yards	428	436 (edge)
Yards per play	9.1 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.15 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	45%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.09 (edge)
Third downs	4/10	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	14	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	2 (edge)	4

Panthers outgained Falcons 436–428 but lost the turnover battle 4–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Taylor HeinickeQB

33/53, 274 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-16.7 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

15/26, 239 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

6.1 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Brian HillRB

8 att, 115 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

21 att, 101 yds, 0 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Calvin RidleyWR

3/5 for 90 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Mohamed SanuWR

5/8 for 81 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 27	16	77	8:03	Touchdown
2	ATL	ATL 15	15	85	6:19	Touchdown
3	CAR	CAR 11	5	4	0:52	Punt
4	ATL	ATL 38	4	7	1:31	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 6	1	3	0:07	Fumble
6	ATL	CAR 13	1	-6	0:06	Fumble
7	CAR	CAR 22	9	41	5:22	Turnover on downs
8	ATL	ATL 25	7	40	2:09	Turnover on downs
9	CAR	CAR 36	12	60	4:42	Interception
10	ATL	ATL 8	4	9	0:21	Punt
11	CAR	CAR 37	4	8	0:28	End of half
12	ATL	ATL 25	3	75	0:09	Touchdown
13	CAR	CAR 37	5	3	1:14	Punt
14	ATL	ATL 15	5	14	1:35	Punt
15	CAR	CAR 20	6	43	3:20	Punt
16	ATL	ATL 15	8	80	4:06	Touchdown
17	CAR	CAR 25	10	73	4:35	Interception
18	ATL	ATL 19	5	27	1:35	Punt
19	CAR	CAR 33	11	66	4:57	Turnover on downs
20	ATL	ATL 7	2	30	0:58	Fumble
21	CAR	ATL 40	6	-1	0:55	Turnover on downs
22	ATL	ATL 41	4	7	2:17	Punt
23	CAR	CAR 15	9	59	2:54	Interception
24	ATL	ATL 20	2	60	1:25	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	15/26	239	3	0	1	6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Brian Hill	8	115	14.4	-1.5
Tevin Coleman	10	51	5.1	0.4
Mohamed Sanu	2	29	14.5	2.1
Matt Ryan	1	-1	-1.0	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	3	5	90	1	19%	6.8
Mohamed Sanu	5	8	81	1	31%	2.4
Austin Hooper	2	2	36	0	8%	1.8
Julio Jones	4	5	28	1	19%	4.3
Ricky Ortiz	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.1
Brian Hill	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Tevin Coleman	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6
Marvin Hall	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.4
Russell Gage	0	2	0	0	8%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Deion Jones	7	6	0	0
Sharrod Neasman	5	6	0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	3	5	0	0
Desmond Trufant	5	2	0	2
Brian Poole	3	4	1	1
Robert Alford	5	0	0	0
Foyesade Oluokun	2	3	0	0
Damontae Kazee	3	1	0	1
Steven Means	3	1	0	0
Grady Jarrett	1	2	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	33/53	274	1	3	2	-16.7
Kyle Allen	4/4	38	0	0	0	2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	21	101	4.8	2.1
Taylor Heinicke	3	33	11.0	2.9
Cameron Artis-Payne	1	7	7.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	12	13	77	0	24%	-0.1
Jarius Wright	7	8	69	0	15%	-4.2
Ian Thomas	4	5	48	1	9%	3.9
Curtis Samuel	7	13	41	0	24%	-7.9
Devin Funchess	2	4	23	0	7%	-2.9
Torrey Smith	1	2	19	0	4%	1.6
D.J. Moore	2	7	19	0	13%	-4.7
Cameron Artis-Payne	1	2	13	0	4%	0.3
Kenjon Barner	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Thomas Davis	3	2	0.0	0
Luke Kuechly	4	1	0.0	1
Mike Adams	3	1	0.0	0
Wes Horton	1	2	0.0	1
Donte Jackson	2	1	0.0	0
Captain Munnerlyn	3	0	0.0	0
Kyle Love	3	0	1.0	0
Mario Addison	2	1	0.0	0
Eric Reid	2	0	0.0	1
Julius Peppers	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -2.5
Closing total: 46.5
ATL moneyline: -147
CAR moneyline: +133

Falcons closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 34 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: ATL 7 days · CAR 6 days
Coaches: Dan Quinn vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.