2018 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 30, 2018 · Heinz Field

Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

PIT -14 no coverU 45.5 ✓Steelers closed -14, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 12:50, CIN +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 12:50CIN — PIT PIT ball · 2nd & 6PIT 84%

(12:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 36-S.Williams at CIN 42. 36-S.Williams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 12:50CIN +19% win prob(12:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 36-S.Williams at CIN 42. 36-S.Williams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:28PIT +13% win prob(8:28) 28-J.Mixon right guard pushed ob at PIT 15 for 51 yards (24-C.Sensabaugh).
Q4 · 2:38PIT +13% win prob(2:38) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 17-E.Rogers to CIN 24 for 10 yards (21-D.Dennard).
Q3 · 5:15PIT +10% win prob(5:15) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 13-J.Washington to CIN 27 for 47 yards (20-K.Russell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Steelers
Offensive plays	46	64
Total yards	196	345 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.23	-0.09 (edge)
Success rate	28%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	-0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	3/12	5/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

31/45, 287 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.2 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Jeff DriskelQB

12/24, 95 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-12.3 expected points added · -12.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

13 att, 105 yds, 0 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

14 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

James WashingtonWR

3/3 for 64 yds, 0 TD

7% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Alex EricksonWR

6/6 for 63 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 23	10	37	6:17	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 20	4	9	2:07	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 21	4	2	1:27	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 19	10	26	4:13	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 18	7	27	3:19	Defensive touchdown
6	PIT	PIT 27	8	26	3:54	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 18	12	66	6:31	Turnover on downs
8	PIT	PIT 45	10	49	2:12	Turnover on downs
9	CIN	CIN 17	5	-5	1:29	Punt
10	PIT	PIT 45	4	4	1:34	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 14	5	15	3:46	Punt
12	PIT	PIT 47	4	5	1:26	Punt
13	CIN	CIN 24	4	9	1:30	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 26	4	74	1:25	Touchdown
15	CIN	CIN 10	7	19	2:56	Punt
16	PIT	PIT 23	13	63	7:19	Turnover on downs
17	CIN	CIN 34	6	47	2:18	Turnover on downs
18	PIT	PIT 25	13	58	4:21	Turnover on downs
19	CIN	CIN 35	5	10	0:48	Turnover on downs
20	PIT	CIN 40	2	0	1:08	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 74 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jeff Driskel	12/24	95	0	0	4	-12.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	13	105	8.1	2.9
Jeff Driskel	2	13	6.5	0.4
Giovani Bernard	3	7	2.3	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Alex Erickson	6	6	63	26%	4.7
Auden Tate	1	3	15	13%	0.1
Giovani Bernard	2	5	8	22%	-4.1
C.J. Uzomah	1	1	6	4%	0.1
Joe Mixon	1	1	2	4%	-1.1
John Ross	1	5	1	22%	-2.5
Cody Core	0	1	0	4%	-0.9
Josh Malone	0	1	0	4%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nick Vigil	9	5	0.0	0	0
Shawn Williams	5	2	0.0	1	1
Darqueze Dennard	4	2	0.0	0	2
KeiVarae Russell	5	0	0.0	0	1
Sam Hubbard	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jessie Bates	2	1	0.0	0	2
Christian Ringo	2	0	1.0	0	0
Andrew Billings	2	0	0.0	0	0
Chris Worley	1	1	0.0	0	0
Geno Atkins	1	1	0.0	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	31/45	287	1	1	1	-3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Conner	14	64	4.6	-0.3
Ben Roethlisberger	3	3	1.0	-2.1
Jaylen Samuels	2	2	1.0	-0.5
Eli Rogers	1	-4	-4.0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
James Washington	3	3	64	0	7%	4.1
Eli Rogers	7	9	57	0	20%	-1.2
Jaylen Samuels	7	8	40	0	18%	2.3
Vance McDonald	3	6	39	0	13%	3.2
JuJu Smith-Schuster	5	10	37	1	22%	-9.5
James Conner	3	3	30	0	7%	1.2
Xavier Grimble	1	1	16	0	2%	2.7
Roosevelt Nix	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.7
Ryan Switzer	1	3	2	0	7%	-2.5
Jesse James	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
L.J. Fort	3	4	0.0	0
T.J. Watt	2	3	1.0	0
Terrell Edmunds	3	1	0.0	0
Stephon Tuitt	2	1	0.5	1
Anthony Chickillo	2	1	0.5	0
Javon Hargrave	1	2	0.0	0
Coty Sensabaugh	2	0	0.0	2
Jordan Dangerfield	2	0	0.0	0
Bud Dupree	2	0	0.0	0
Cameron Sutton	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -14
Closing total: 45.5
CIN moneyline: +512
PIT moneyline: -672

Steelers closed -14, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 29 — under by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 42°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: CIN 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Marvin Lewis vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.