2019 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Atlanta Falcons
24
Indianapolis ColtsWinner
27
Indianapolis Colts 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 4:23, IND +9% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(4:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton to ATL 47 for 26 yards (37-R.Allen). PENALTY on ATL-37-R.Allen, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 47. Penalty on ATL-26-I.Oliver, Defensive Pass
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 4:23IND +9% win prob(4:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton to ATL 47 for 26 yards (37-R.Allen). PENALTY on ATL-37-R.Allen, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 47. Penalty on ATL-26-I.Oliver, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
- Q4 · 4:17IND +9% win prob(4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q3 · 9:01IND +7% win prob(9:01) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to ATL 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 38-K.Barner to ATL 40 for 13 yards (38-R.Lewis). PENALTY on ATL-33-B.Wreh-Wilson, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 37.
- Q4 · 13:43IND +7% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox to IND 36 for 16 yards (26-I.Oliver).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Falcons | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 53 | 60 |
| Total yards | 398 (edge) | 381 |
| Yards per play | 7.5 (edge) | 6.3 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.41 (edge) | 0.26 |
| Success rate | 57% (edge) | 52% |
| Dropback rate | 64% | 65% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.63 (edge) | 0.49 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.01 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Third downs | 8/10 (edge) | 5/8 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 23 (edge) | 22 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Falcons outgained Colts 398–381 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | IND 25 | 10 | 39 | 5:30 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | ATL | ATL 17 | 8 | 47 | 3:48 | Punt | |
| 3 | IND | IND 7 | 8 | 88 | 4:17 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | ATL | ATL 25 | 6 | 47 | 2:14 | Interception | |
| 5 | IND | IND 3 | 15 | 89 | 8:20 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | ATL | ATL 25 | 10 | 59 | 3:31 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | IND | IND 36 | 12 | 41 | 2:11 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | ATL | ATL 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:09 | End of half | |
| 9 | ATL | ATL 25 | 10 | 75 | 4:30 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | -5 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 11 | ATL | ATL 22 | 17 | 88 | 9:56 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | IND | IND 25 | 13 | 70 | 5:11 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | ATL | ATL 29 | 12 | 82 | 4:29 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | IND | IND 25 | 10 | 59 | 4:11 | End of game |
0 of 14 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 89 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- IND -1
- Closing total
- 48
- ATL moneyline
- +105
- IND moneyline
- -116
Colts closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 48; the game landed 51 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Lucas Oil Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Alex Kemp
- Rest
- ATL 7 days · IND 7 days
- Coaches
- Dan Quinn vs Frank Reich