For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Dallas Cowboys 10 at New Orleans Saints 12. Final.
Cowboys -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 4
New Orleans Saints 12, Cowboys 10 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:02, 2nd and 10, on M.Williams — 20.1 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 2nd and 10
M.Williams
Saints
(:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams [22-C.Gardner-Johnson] at NO 13. 43-M.Williams to NO 14 for 1 yard (18-R.Cobb).
U 47 ✓
Dome
Cowboys closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New Orleans Saints 12–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Saints +20.1% win probability on one snap.
20.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
B.JarwinCowboysQ3 8:49(8:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 89-B.Jarwin to NO 2 for 35 yards (43-M.Williams) [92-M.Davenport]. NO-92-M.Davenport was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Pass 25, YAC 10
13.9pts
D.PrescottSaintsQ4 1:39(1:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 3 for -11 yards (93-D.Onyemata). DAL-77-T.Smith was injured during the play. Owing to the injury and Dallas being out of timeouts, there was a 10-second runoff.
15.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.44 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Saints at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Saints won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cowboys at 3 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 2 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Cowboys152 of 163 plays carry both curves
(:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams [22-C.Gardner-Johnson] at NO 13. 43-M.Williams to NO 14 for 1 yard (18-R.Cobb).
Swing +20.1 for SaintsExpected points +0.34 for SaintsThe model had Cowboys 6 points higher than the market did.play 162
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:02DAL +20% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams [22-C.Gardner-Johnson] at NO 13. 43-M.Williams to NO 14 for 1 yard (18-R.Cobb).
4th · 1:39DAL +16% win prob(1:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 3 for -11 yards (93-D.Onyemata). DAL-77-T.Smith was injured during the play. Owing to the injury and Dallas being out of timeouts, there was a 10-second runoff.
3rd · 8:49NO +14% win prob(8:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 89-B.Jarwin to NO 2 for 35 yards (43-M.Williams) [92-M.Davenport]. NO-92-M.Davenport was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Pass 25, YAC 10
4th · 0:17NO +13% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb to DAL 48 for 32 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 24, YAC 8
4th · 1:45DAL +11% win prob(1:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 33 yards to DAL 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.
4th · 7:37DAL +10% win prob(7:37) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at NO 33 for -10 yards (58-R.Quinn).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
W.Lutz's 26-yard field goal with 13:45 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st5:13B.Maher·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+33–0
2nd15:00W.Lutz·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+33–3
2nd8:46W.Lutz·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+33–6
2nd0:02W.Lutz·19-yd field goal19-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+33–9
4th13:45W.Lutz·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+310–12
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categorySaints
Cowboys4–5Saints
257Total yards266
4.8Yards per play4.3
38%Success rate44%
45%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
2Explosive plays6
14First downs16
1Sacks taken5
3Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Cowboys: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.14Saints: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Cowboys: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.25Saints: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.44Cowboys: −0.44 expected points added per play
+0.03Saints: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 53 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Saints’s 62 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 2, Saints 4.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.7% in week 3 against 20.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Saints20.6%
inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NO's sack or hit rate, 20.6% against a season mean of 16.2% — and NO swings 6.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
72Travis FrederickC · Every snap100%58 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%58 snaps
52Connor WilliamsG · Every snap100%58 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%58 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Full-time97%56 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Full-time97%56 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Full-time86%50 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Full-time81%47 snaps
82Jason WittenTE · Heavy rotation79%46 snaps
15Devin SmithWR · Heavy rotation79%46 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Rotational29%17 snaps
10Tavon AustinWR · Situational19%11 snaps
75Cameron FlemingT · Situational16%9 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational10%6 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Situational3%2 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Adam RedmondCDonovan WilsonDBTyrone CrawfordDEAntwaun WoodsDTLuke GiffordLBBrandon KnightTMichael GallupWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cooper RushQB
New Orleans Saints
46 dressed · 7 inactive
67Larry WarfordG · Every snap100%70 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%70 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%70 snaps
75Andrus PeatT · Every snap100%70 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%70 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Full-time97%68 snaps
5Teddy BridgewaterQB · Full-time97%68 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation79%55 snaps
19Ted GinnWR · Heavy rotation71%50 snaps
80Austin CarrWR · Heavy rotation61%43 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation59%41 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Situational24%17 snaps
84Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Situational14%10 snaps
60Patrick OmamehG · Situational13%9 snaps
42Zach LineFB · Situational10%7 snaps
11Deonte HarrisWR · Situational10%7 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Situational9%6 snaps
Inactive · 7
Will ClappCKen CrawleyCBSaquan HamptonDBMario EdwardsDEDrew BreesQBEthan GreenidgeTTre'Quan SmithWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams [22-C.Gardner-Johnson] at NO 13. 43-M.Williams to NO 14 for 1 yard (18-R.Cobb).
Q4 0:02 · Cowboys · 2nd & 10 at DAL 48 · gained nothing · -0.34 EP · −26.4% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 84 yards from the DAL 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
38%
Yards
523
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.2449%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1865%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1686%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.3740%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Saints 49
Intercepted8 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Saints 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Cowboys3Saints0
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Saints 10
The period ended12 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Cowboys 11
2nd quarter44 plays
Cowboys3Saints3
Field goal1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 30
Cowboys3Saints6
Field goal8 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Cowboys 15
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 31
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 47 to the Saints 48
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Cowboys 43
Cowboys3Saints9
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 1
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Cowboys9Saints9
Cowboys10Saints9
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Saints 1
The period ended15 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Cowboys 16
4th quarter48 plays
Cowboys10Saints12
Field goal3 plays, from the Cowboys 11 to the Cowboys 8
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 42
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 44
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 19
Punt13 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Cowboys 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runGoCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Cowboys 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -2.5
Closing total
47
Cowboys moneyline
-140
Saints moneyline
+127
Cowboys closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 22 — under by 25.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Cowboys 7 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Jason Garrett vs Sean Payton
2nd · 0:02DAL +9% win prob(:02) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
2nd · 1:36DAL +9% win prob(1:36) (Run formation) 21-E.Elliott right guard to DAL 45 for 2 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by NO-24-V.Bell at DAL 44. 24-V.Bell to DAL 44 for no gain (21-E.Elliott). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
