2019 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium
Jacksonville JaguarsWinner
27
Cincinnati Bengals
17
Jacksonville Jaguars 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 4:21, JAX +16% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(4:21) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II sacked at JAX 1 for -6 yards (97-G.Atkins).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 4:21JAX +16% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II sacked at JAX 1 for -6 yards (97-G.Atkins).
- Q4 · 8:40JAX +15% win prob(8:40) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Jack at JAX 10. 44-M.Jack to JAX 24 for 14 yards. 44-M.Jack pass short left to 36-R.Harrison to CIN 48 for 28 yards. PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 24.
- Q4 · 15:00CIN +14% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 18-C.Conley to CIN 8 for 47 yards (30-J.Bates III; 57-G.Pratt).
- Q2 · 0:38CIN +12% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep right to 12-D.Westbrook to CIN 11 for 33 yards (29-T.McRae).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Jaguars | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 77 | 65 |
| Total yards | 463 (edge) | 291 |
| Yards per play | 6.0 (edge) | 4.5 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.02 (edge) | -0.32 |
| Success rate | 42% (edge) | 35% |
| Dropback rate | 52% | 72% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.14 (edge) | -0.26 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.10 (edge) | -0.50 |
| Third downs | 4/16 | 5/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 13 (edge) | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 15 |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 4 |
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | JAX 25 | 10 | 79 | 4:21 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | CIN | CIN 1 | 4 | 6 | 1:59 | Punt | |
| 3 | JAX | JAX 23 | 4 | -3 | 2:06 | Punt | |
| 4 | CIN | CIN 47 | 5 | 12 | 0:48 | Punt | |
| 5 | JAX | JAX 3 | 4 | -2 | 2:16 | Punt | |
| 6 | CIN | JAX 43 | 4 | -7 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 7 | JAX | JAX 1 | 8 | 59 | 3:30 | Punt | |
| 8 | CIN | CIN 12 | 4 | 2 | 1:39 | Punt | |
| 9 | JAX | JAX 28 | 11 | 69 | 5:19 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | CIN | CIN 25 | 7 | 7 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 11 | JAX | JAX 9 | 7 | 38 | 2:48 | Punt | |
| 12 | CIN | CIN 20 | 7 | 90 | 0:49 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | JAX | JAX 25 | 10 | 69 | 1:21 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | CIN | CIN 49 | 2 | 0 | 0:04 | End of half | |
| 15 | CIN | CIN 25 | 6 | 43 | 1:40 | Fumble | |
| 16 | JAX | JAX 43 | 12 | 38 | 6:28 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | CIN | CIN 25 | 5 | -11 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 18 | JAX | CIN 48 | 4 | 1 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 19 | CIN | CIN 9 | 10 | 62 | 3:07 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | JAX | JAX 25 | 7 | 77 | 2:50 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | CIN | CIN 25 | 11 | 45 | 4:16 | Interception | |
| 22 | JAX | JAX 19 | 7 | 14 | 3:14 | Punt | |
| 23 | CIN | CIN 23 | 3 | 0 | 0:53 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 24 | CIN | JAX 41 | 2 | 0 | 0:19 | Interception | |
| 25 | JAX | CIN 37 | 7 | 24 | 2:03 | Turnover on downs | |
| 26 | CIN | CIN 31 | 11 | 42 | 1:33 | Touchdown | |
| 27 | JAX | CIN 44 | 2 | 0 | 0:23 | End of game |
0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 90 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- JAX -4
- Closing total
- 44.5
- JAX moneyline
- -214
- CIN moneyline
- +189
Jaguars closed -4 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 44 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Paul Brown Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 70°F, wind 2 mph
- Referee
- Craig Wrolstad
- Rest
- JAX 7 days · CIN 7 days
- Coaches
- Doug Marrone vs Zac Taylor