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2019 Week 8 · Thu, Oct 24, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
CommandersWashington9
BY 10final margin
VikingsMinnesota19
Washington Commanders 9 at Minnesota Vikings 19. Final.
Vikings -16.5 no coverU 42 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 8
Minnesota Vikings 19, Commanders 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 12:38, 2nd and 3, on S.Diggs — 9.4 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:38 · 2nd and 3
S.Diggs
Commanders
(12:38) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 14-S.Diggs to WAS 25 for 32 yards (55-C.Holcomb) [20-L.Collins]. FUMBLES (55-C.Holcomb), RECOVERED by WAS-52-R.Anderson at WAS 25. 52-R.Anderson to WAS 25 for no gain (56-G.Bradbury).
Dome
Vikings closed -16.5, won by 10 — but didn't cover.
Minnesota Vikings 19–9. Biggest swing: Q1 12:38, Commanders +9.4% win probability on one snap.
9.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.KeenumVikingsQ1 9:04(9:04) 8-C.Keenum sacked at WAS 46 for -7 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], RECOVERED by MIN-93-S.Stephen at WAS 46. 93-S.Stephen to WAS 46 for no gain (26-A.Peterson).
8.5pts
D.HopkinsCommandersQ2 2:00(2:00) 3-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
6.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Vikings won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Commanders at 2 of 7 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Commanders at 4 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 20.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 42 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Commanders137 of 147 plays carry both curves
(12:38) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 14-S.Diggs to WAS 25 for 32 yards (55-C.Holcomb) [20-L.Collins]. FUMBLES (55-C.Holcomb), RECOVERED by WAS-52-R.Anderson at WAS 25. 52-R.Anderson to WAS 25 for no gain (56-G.Bradbur
Swing −9.4 for VikingsExpected points −3.82 for VikingsThe model had Commanders 36 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:38WAS +9% win prob(12:38) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 14-S.Diggs to WAS 25 for 32 yards (55-C.Holcomb) [20-L.Collins]. FUMBLES (55-C.Holcomb), RECOVERED by WAS-52-R.Anderson at WAS 25. 52-R.Anderson to WAS 25 for no gain (56-G.Bradbury).
1st · 9:04WAS +8% win prob(9:04) 8-C.Keenum sacked at WAS 46 for -7 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], RECOVERED by MIN-93-S.Stephen at WAS 46. 93-S.Stephen to WAS 46 for no gain (26-A.Peterson).
2nd · 2:00MIN +7% win prob(2:00) 3-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
1st · 12:24MIN +6% win prob(12:24) 8-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 10-P.Richardson to WAS 43 for 18 yards (54-E.Kendricks).
2nd · 12:48WAS +6% win prob(12:48) (No Huddle) 33-D.Cook left tackle to MIN 41 for 6 yards (97-T.Settle). PENALTY on MIN-75-B.O'Neill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 35 - No Play.
3rd · 2:05WAS +5% win prob(2:05) 7-D.Haskins pass deep middle intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Harris at MIN 14. 41-A.Harris to MIN 19 for 5 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Cook's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 0:11 left in the 2nd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:25D.Bailey·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+30–3
2nd14:03D.Hopkins·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+33–3
2nd7:29D.Bailey·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+33–6
2nd2:00D.Hopkins·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+36–6
2nd0:11D.Cook·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+76–13
3rd8:37D.Bailey·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+36–16
3rd5:15D.Hopkins·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+39–16
4th10:40D.Bailey·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+39–19
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryVikings
Commanders1–8Vikings
216Total yards434
5.3Yards per play6.5
44%Success rate40%
29%Third-down rate53%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays8
13First downs20
4Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Vikings ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Commanders: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.03Vikings: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Commanders: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.23Vikings: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Commanders: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.12Vikings: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 41 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Vikings’s 67 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Vikings 4.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's pass rate over expected turned over: −26.2 pts in week 7 against +4.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.3% in week 7 against 20.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Vikings20.0%
leaned — got home · +4.8 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 57.5 points above their season mean of 42.5% and 1.7 times their own 33.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Keenum sacked−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:04) 8-C.Keenum sacked at WAS 46 for -7 yards (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter) [99-D.Hunter], RECOVERED by MIN-93-S.Stephen at WAS 46. 93-S.Stephen to WAS 46 for no gain (26-A.Peterson).
Q1 9:04 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at MIN 47 · lost 7 · -6.26 EP · −13.2% win probability
135 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 147 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 82 yards from the MIN 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
147 of 147 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
147
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
38%
Yards
650
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.2274%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR19-0.2632%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.7079%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13+0.4231%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.4658%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.3011%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.5357%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-1.6257%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
147 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
147 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 43
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Vikings 47
Commanders0Vikings3
Field goal8 plays, from the Commanders 46 to the Commanders 32
The period ended11 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Vikings 19
2nd quarter43 plays
Commanders3Vikings3
Field goal5 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 2
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Commanders3Vikings6
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Commanders 3
Commanders6Vikings6
Field goal12 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Vikings 5
Commanders6Vikings12
Commanders6Vikings13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Commanders 4
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Commanders 28
Commanders6Vikings16
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Commanders 5
Commanders9Vikings16
Field goal8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Vikings 21
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Vikings 30
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Vikings 42
4th quarter35 plays
Commanders9Vikings19
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 46 to the Commanders 20
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 30
Turnover on downs19 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Commanders 7
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Commanderscategory by categoryVikings
Commanders0
Vikings3
