2019 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 17, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium
Buffalo BillsWinner
37
Miami Dolphins
20
Buffalo Bills 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:07, MIA +6% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(3:07) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 17-A.Hurns to MIA 38 for 18 yards (21-J.Poyer).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 3:07MIA +6% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 17-A.Hurns to MIA 38 for 18 yards (21-J.Poyer).
- Q4 · 14:39MIA +5% win prob(14:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) Direct snap to 27-K.Ballage. 19-J.Grant right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 13:16MIA +5% win prob(13:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass deep right to 15-J.Brown for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 3:39BUF +4% win prob(Onside Kick formation) 7-J.Sanders kicks onside 12 yards from MIA 35 to MIA 47. RECOVERED by MIA-7-J.Sanders.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Bills | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 66 | 66 |
| Total yards | 425 (edge) | 303 |
| Yards per play | 6.4 (edge) | 4.6 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.27 (edge) | -0.21 |
| Success rate | 44% (edge) | 38% |
| Dropback rate | 55% | 80% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.40 (edge) | -0.19 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.13 (edge) | -0.29 |
| Third downs | 5/14 (edge) | 4/14 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 (edge) | 3 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 (edge) | 18 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 7 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 25 | 8 | 42 | 2:56 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | MIA | MIA 9 | 5 | 2 | 2:18 | Punt | |
| 3 | BUF | MIA 42 | 11 | 22 | 5:17 | Turnover on downs | |
| 4 | MIA | MIA 25 | 8 | 9 | 4:08 | Punt | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 19 | 6 | 81 | 2:12 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | MIA | MIA 10 | 6 | 0 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 7 | BUF | BUF 35 | 7 | 67 | 3:21 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | MIA | MIA 25 | 6 | 13 | 1:17 | Punt | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 18 | 4 | -1 | 0:48 | Punt | |
| 10 | MIA | MIA 32 | 6 | 68 | 1:57 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | MIA | MIA 47 | 2 | 20 | 0:06 | Fumble | |
| 12 | BUF | BUF 25 | 7 | 64 | 2:10 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | MIA | — | 2 | 0 | 0:14 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 25 | 5 | 3 | 0:22 | Punt | |
| 15 | MIA | MIA 36 | 2 | 0 | 0:47 | End of half | |
| 16 | MIA | MIA 25 | 8 | 8 | 3:12 | Punt | |
| 17 | BUF | BUF 47 | 10 | 53 | 4:53 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | MIA | MIA 25 | 7 | 9 | 2:16 | Punt | |
| 19 | BUF | BUF 12 | 4 | 7 | 1:18 | Punt | |
| 20 | MIA | MIA 35 | 8 | 50 | 3:46 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | BUF | BUF 38 | 10 | 72 | 3:57 | Touchdown | |
| 22 | MIA | 50 | 6 | 7 | 1:59 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | BUF | BUF 43 | 5 | 8 | 0:37 | Punt | |
| 24 | MIA | MIA 8 | 11 | 88 | 4:22 | Turnover on downs | |
| 25 | BUF | BUF 4 | 4 | 7 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 26 | MIA | MIA 40 | 6 | 29 | 1:22 | Turnover on downs | |
| 27 | BUF | BUF 31 | 1 | 0 | 0:40 | End of game |
0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 88 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- BUF -7
- Closing total
- 41.5
- BUF moneyline
- -307
- MIA moneyline
- +263
Bills closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 57 — over by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Hard Rock Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 62°F, wind 13 mph
- Referee
- Scott Novak
- Rest
- BUF 7 days · MIA 7 days
- Coaches
- Sean McDermott vs Brian Flores
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.