2019 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 1, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Indianapolis Colts

TEN -1 ✓O 41.5 ✓DomeTitans closed -1 and covered, winning by 14.

Tennessee Titans 31–17. Biggest swing: Q4 5:12, TEN +39% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:12TEN — IND IND ball · 4th & 10IND 52%

(5:12) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (29-D.Cruikshank), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez, RECOVERED by TEN-23-T.Smith at TEN 37. 23-T.Smith for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:12TEN +39% win prob(5:12) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (29-D.Cruikshank), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez, RECOVERED by TEN-23-T.Smith at TEN 37. 23-T.Smith for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 5:52TEN +24% win prob(5:52) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 84-J.Doyle INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at IND 35. 31-K.Byard to IND 14 for 21 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox).
Q1 · 2:11TEN +17% win prob(2:11) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 37 for -8 yards (58-B.Okereke). FUMBLES (58-B.Okereke) [58-B.Okereke], RECOVERED by IND-99-J.Houston at TEN 33. 99-J.Houston to TEN 33 for no gain (81-J.Smith). Credit IND #58 with -12 sack yards.
Q3 · 5:59IND +12% win prob(5:59) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Colts
Offensive plays	55	66
Total yards	295	392 (edge)
Yards per play	5.4	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.09	-0.08 (edge)
Success rate	44%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	53%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	-0.07 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.09
Third downs	5/12	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	3 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Colts outgained Titans 392–295 but lost the turnover battle 3–2. That was the game.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	2	9	0:09	Fumble
2	IND	TEN 39	7	44	3:48	Touchdown
3	TEN	TEN 25	13	75	5:58	Touchdown
4	IND	IND 25	8	43	2:54	Turnover on downs
5	TEN	TEN 45	1	-12	0:08	Fumble
6	IND	TEN 33	4	-2	1:20	Turnover on downs
7	TEN	TEN 43	7	16	3:16	Punt
8	IND	IND 10	11	80	6:20	Turnover on downs
9	TEN	TEN 25	5	-8	2:17	Punt
10	IND	IND 41	4	13	2:00	Punt
11	TEN	TEN 8	8	38	1:35	Punt
12	IND	IND 6	1	0	0:15	End of half
13	IND	IND 25	13	75	4:37	Touchdown
14	TEN	TEN 25	10	85	4:31	Touchdown
15	IND	IND 25	2	0	0:12	Interception
16	TEN	IND 14	4	2	1:14	Turnover on downs
17	IND	IND 25	5	3	1:31	Punt
18	TEN	TEN 28	4	6	2:14	Punt
19	IND	IND 12	6	17	2:09	Punt
20	TEN	TEN 20	8	33	2:30	Punt
21	IND	IND 10	10	57	6:00	Turnover on downs
22	IND	IND 26	3	0	0:21	Interception
23	TEN	IND 44	4	44	1:39	Touchdown
24	IND	IND 25	8	62	1:04	Fumble
25	TEN	TEN 8	5	7	1:58	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 85 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -1
Closing total: 41.5
TEN moneyline: -109
IND moneyline: -101

Titans closed -1 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 48 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: TEN 7 days · IND 10 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Frank Reich

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.